Putting the Paycheck Protection Program into Perspective: An Analysis Using Administrative and Survey Data

IF 1.8 3区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

National Tax Journal Pub Date : 2023-05-08 DOI:10.1086/724591

Michaela Dalton

引用次数: 8

Abstract

After matching more than 3 million loans from the $669 billion Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to administrative wage records, I estimate a dynamic difference-in-difference event study showing robust impacts of the loans on employment, wages, and opening status of establishments 15 months after PPP approval. Between $12,000 and $19,000 of PPP loans are spent per employee-month retained 15 months postapproval, with 43 percent of the PPP going toward wage retention in the baseline model. The smallest employers show the largest impact, explaining disparate results from prior papers focusing on larger employers. Properly accounting for closures is key to understanding the PPP’s long-term impact.

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透视薪水保护计划:使用行政和调查数据的分析

在将来自6690亿美元工资保护计划(PPP)的300多万笔贷款与行政工资记录相匹配后，我估计了一项动态差异事件研究，显示了PPP批准后15个月贷款对就业、工资和开业状况的强劲影响。在批准后的15个月里，每个雇员每月的购买力平价贷款支出在12,000美元到19,000美元之间，其中43%的购买力平价用于基准模型中的工资保留。最小的雇主表现出最大的影响，这解释了与之前关注大型雇主的论文不同的结果。正确考虑关闭是理解PPP长期影响的关键。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

National Tax Journal Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

11.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The goal of the National Tax Journal (NTJ) is to encourage and disseminate high quality original research on governmental tax and expenditure policies. Articles published in the regular March, June and September issues of the journal, as well as articles accepted for publication in special issues of the journal, are subject to professional peer review and include economic, theoretical, and empirical analyses of tax and expenditure issues with an emphasis on policy implications. The NTJ has been published quarterly since 1948 under the auspices of the National Tax Association (NTA). Most issues include an NTJ Forum, which consists of invited papers by leading scholars that examine in depth a single current tax or expenditure policy issue. The December issue is devoted to publishing papers presented at the NTA’s annual Spring Symposium; the articles in the December issue generally are not subject to peer review.