Use of HFACS and Bayesian network for human and organizational factors analysis of ship collision accidents in the Yangtze River

IF 3.7 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Maritime Policy & Management Pub Date : 2021-06-28 DOI:10.1080/03088839.2021.1946609

Yaling Li, Zhiyou Cheng, T. Yip, Xiaobiao Fan, Bing Wu

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引用次数: 10

Abstract

ABSTRACT Human and organizational factors are the contributing factors for collision accidents from the historical data. To discover the key influencing factor, a human factor analysis and classification system based Bayesian Network model is proposed in this paper. The kernel of this proposed model is first to derive the unsafe acts from the perspective of perception, decision-making, and execution failures using the collision avoidance scheme, to classify the human factors into five categories using the modified human-factor analysis and classification system, and to transform the influencing factors of HOFs in the modified HFACS into the graphical structure of the Bayesian network. The results are verified from historical collision accidents data in the Yangtze River, and sensitivity analysis is carried out to validate the axioms of the Bayesian network. From further analysis, the causation factor and global causation chain of ship collision accidents can be derived. Consequently, the results are beneficial for the prevention and control of ship collision accidents in the Yangtze River by reducing human and organization factors.

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基于HFACS和贝叶斯网络的长江船舶碰撞事故人因和组织因素分析

从历史数据来看，人为因素和组织因素是造成碰撞事故的主要因素。为了发现关键的影响因素，本文提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络模型的人因分析与分类系统。该模型的核心是首先利用避碰方案从感知、决策和执行失败的角度推导不安全行为，利用改进的人因分析和分类系统将不安全行为分为五类，并将改进的HFACS中不安全行为的影响因素转化为贝叶斯网络的图形结构。利用长江历史碰撞事故数据对结果进行了验证，并对贝叶斯网络的原理进行了灵敏度分析。通过进一步分析，可以得出船舶碰撞事故的原因因素和整体因果链。研究结果有利于减少人为因素和组织因素对长江船舶碰撞事故的预防和控制。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Maritime Policy & Management TRANSPORTATION-

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

8.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Thirty years ago maritime management decisions were taken on the basis of experience and hunch. Today, the experience is augmented by expert analysis and informed by research findings. Maritime Policy & Management provides the latest findings and analyses, and the opportunity for exchanging views through its Comment Section. A multi-disciplinary and international refereed journal, it brings together papers on the different topics that concern the maritime industry. Emphasis is placed on business, organizational, economic, sociolegal and management topics at port, community, shipping company and shipboard levels. The Journal also provides details of conferences and book reviews.