Europe

Abstract

. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s last term is coming to a conclusion, but her nominated successor as leader of the CDU has performed in a lacklustre fashion and her party is struggling to hold off the challenge from far-right and liberal parties. Despite slowing economic growth, there is little sign that Merkel is prepared to countenance a more expansionary fiscal policy. . In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s plans for radical transformation were challenged by mass protests. Escalating violence prompted the authorities to step back from confrontation and reverse planned reforms, casting doubt on the future trajectory. Still, Macron remains a driving force within Europe and a standard-bearer for those seeking to stem the rise of nativist politics. . The UK missed a deadline to leave the EU, as parties in Parliament failed to form a majority over the terms of departure and the model for a new partnership. The imperatives to avoid a hard border in Ireland and to pursue an independent trade policy seemed impossible to reconcile. Brexit, which had barely registered among voters’ main concerns prior to 2015, may become the new dividing line in UK politics. . EU–US relations turned more tense as European states sought to preserve the Iran nuclear deal while the US used its economic leverage to force European companies to uphold a trade and financial embargo. European states have also failed to take action sufficient to silence the complaints of the US administration that the US bears a disproportionate share of NATO’s spending burden. . European tensions with Turkey moderated somewhat, despite Turkey’s authoritarian turn of recent years, with the two sides cooperating on migration despite the failure to advance relations in other areas including EU accession talks, trade relations and visas. Relations with Russia were little changed: the EU upheld sanctions despite a desire on the part of southern states to revisit the issue.