PREELECTION MOBILIZATION AND ELECTORAL OUTCOME IN AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES

IF 1.3 2区社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY

Mobilization Pub Date : 2017-10-09 DOI:10.17813/1086-671X-22-3-293

M. Kadivar

引用次数: 3

Abstract

Does preelection protest have an effect on the outcomes of authoritarian elections? Electoral authoritarian regimes use elections to consolidate their power and claim democratic legitimacy. Nonetheless, on some occasions authoritarian incumbents lose elections despite their advantages, and a democratic breakthrough is achieved. I propose that preelection protests contribute to such election results. Existing scholarship focuses primarily on the effectiveness of postelection upheavals, and the effects of preelection protest are still theoretically and empirically understudied. This article proposes a theory for why preelection contention has an independent effect on incumbent defeat of authoritarian regimes and democratization. I present empirical support for the association between preelection protest activities, incumbent defeat, and democratization using data from 190 elections across 65 countries with nondemocratic regimes. The findings of this analysis have important implications for studies of social...

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独裁政权的选前动员与选举结果

选前抗议对独裁选举的结果有影响吗?选举专制政权利用选举来巩固其权力，并宣称其民主合法性。尽管如此，在某些情况下，独裁在位者尽管有优势，但还是会输掉选举，从而实现民主的突破。我认为，选举前的抗议活动促成了这种选举结果。现有的学术研究主要集中在选举后动荡的有效性上，而选举前抗议的影响在理论上和实证上仍未得到充分研究。本文提出了一种理论，解释为什么选前竞争对现任独裁政权的失败和民主化具有独立的影响。我利用来自65个非民主政权国家的190次选举的数据，为选前抗议活动、现任者的失败和民主化之间的联系提供了实证支持。这一分析的发现对社会……的研究具有重要意义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Mobilization SOCIOLOGY-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Mobilization: An International Quarterly is the premier journal of research specializing in social movements, protests, insurgencies, revolutions, and other forms of contentious politics. Mobilization was first published in 1996 to fill the need for a scholarly review of research that focused exclusively with social movements, protest and collective action. Mobilization is fully peer-reviewed and widely indexed. A 2003 study, when Mobilization was published semiannually, showed that its citation index rate was 1.286, which placed it among the top ten sociology journals. Today, Mobilization is published four times a year, in March, June, September, and December. The editorial board is composed of thirty internationally recognized scholars from political science, sociology and social psychology. The goal of Mobilization is to provide a forum for global, scholarly dialogue. It is currently distributed to the top international research libraries and read by the most engaged scholars in the field. We hope that through its wide distribution, different research strategies and theoretical/conceptual approaches will be shared among the global community of social movement scholars, encouraging a collaborative process that will further the development of a cumulative social science.