Understanding Forecasting Errors in State Personal Income Tax Revenues: The Role of Capital Gains

IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS

PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW Pub Date : 2023-04-20 DOI:10.1177/10911421231168724

Asa Ferguson, Liam Marshall, Jonathan C. Rork

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Many states face challenges in producing accurate forecasts of tax revenue from personal income. Using data from 1996 to 2019, we look at how growth in the various base components of personal income influence the accuracy of a state's forecast of revenue from personal income taxation. We consistently find growth in capital gains, which has the highest year-to-year volatility among personal income components, to be associated with a state underestimating its actual revenues from personal income by at least 2 percentage points.

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理解州个人所得税收入的预测误差:资本利得的作用

许多州在准确预测个人收入税收方面面临挑战。使用1996年至2019年的数据，我们研究了个人收入的各种基本组成部分的增长如何影响一个州对个人所得税收入预测的准确性。我们一直发现，资本收益的增长与一个州低估其个人收入的实际收入至少2个百分点有关，资本收益在个人收入构成中的年波动性最高。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Public Finance Review is a professional forum devoted to US policy-oriented economic research and theory, which focuses on a variety of allocation, distribution and stabilization functions within the public-sector economy. Economists, policy makers, political scientists, and researchers all rely on Public Finance Review, to bring them the most up-to-date information on the ever changing US public finance system, and to help them put policies and research into action. Public Finance Review not only presents rigorous empirical and theoretical papers on public economic policies, but also examines and critiques their impact and consequences. The journal analyzes the nature and function of evolving US governmental fiscal policies at the national, state and local levels.