The Strategic Implications of the Evolving US-China Nuclear Balance

Abstract

China is significantly expanding the size and sophistication of its nuclear forces. Over the summer of 2021, researchers using satellite imagery discovered three separate fields of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos under construction in the deserts of north-central China. If each silo is eventually equipped with a missile, the Chinese nuclear arsenal capable of striking the continental US could triple in size. The US government estimates that China’s nuclear arsenal could number 1000 warheads by 2030, with at least 200 deployed on long-range platforms. In addition to expanding its silo-based missile force, Beijing is building more robust and effective road-mobile missiles capable of striking targets in Asia and the continental United States. China will also soon join the United States and Russia as the only nuclear powers with a complete nuclear triad—the capability to launch nuclear weapons from land-based missiles, submarines, and bomber aircraft. China is also exploring new kinds of nuclear weapons delivery platforms, including a hypersonic “fractional orbital bombardment system” and possibly autonomous underwater drones. As a result, US military commanders have assessed that China is “no longer a lesser-included case” of the “pacing” nuclear threat posed by Russia. Taking note of China’s nuclear expansion, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently observed that “China’s military is on pace