The changing precipitation storm properties under future climate change

IF 2.7 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science

Hydrology Research Pub Date : 2023-03-13 DOI:10.2166/nh.2023.142

Haijie Wang, P. Jiang, Rongrong Zhang, Jiahui Zhao, W. Si, Yong Fang, Nana Zhang

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Changes in precipitation storm characteristics especially extreme precipitation events have been frequently reported during recent years, which poses great challenges for flood controls of reservoir basins. In this study, we present a comprehensive examination on the evolution of storm properties during two distinct rainy seasons in Changtan Reservoir Basin located on the southeastern coast of China. We compare the differences in storm duration, inter-storm period, the average storm intensity, and with-in storm pattern between the Meiyu flood season (MFS) and typhoon flood season (TFS). We also explore the future projections of these storm properties based on Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) precipitation outputs. Our results indicate that precipitation storms in TFS exhibit shorter duration and higher average storm intensity than those of MFS, the flood risk in June is mainly due to accumulative precipitation (longer duration), while in July to September, is mainly due to the storms with high intensity. The projected precipitation shows uncertainties for different emission scenarios, especially during TFS. However, the increasing trend of the average storm intensity is relatively consistent, which is supposed to bring more pressure on flood control in the study area. The results can provide a beneficial reference to water resources management.

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未来气候变化下降水风暴性质的变化

近年来，暴雨降水特征的变化，特别是极端降水事件的频繁报道，给库区流域防洪带来了巨大挑战。本文对位于中国东南沿海的长滩水库盆地两个不同雨季的风暴特性演变进行了全面研究。比较了梅雨汛期(MFS)与台风汛期(TFS)在暴雨持续时间、暴雨间期、平均暴雨强度、暴雨内型等方面的差异。我们还探讨了基于耦合模式比对项目6 (CMIP6)降水输出的这些风暴属性的未来预测。结果表明:暴雨持续时间短，平均暴雨强度高，6月份的洪水风险主要是累积降水(持续时间较长)，而7 ~ 9月份的洪水风险主要是高强度暴雨。预估降水在不同排放情景下表现出不确定性，特别是在TFS期间。然而，平均暴雨强度的增加趋势相对一致，这应该会给研究区带来更大的防洪压力。研究结果可为水资源管理提供有益参考。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Hydrology Research Environmental Science-Water Science and Technology

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

7.40%

发文量

审稿时长

17 weeks

期刊介绍： Hydrology Research provides international coverage on all aspects of hydrology in its widest sense, and welcomes the submission of papers from across the subject. While emphasis is placed on studies of the hydrological cycle, the Journal also covers the physics and chemistry of water. Hydrology Research is intended to be a link between basic hydrological research and the practical application of scientific results within the broad field of water management.