Forecasting the Active Cases of COVID-19 via a New Stochastic Rayleigh Diffusion Process

IF 3.6 2区数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS

Fractal and Fractional Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI:10.3390/fractalfract7090660

Ahmed Nafidi, Y. Chakroune, R. Gutiérrez-Sánchez, A. Tridane

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this work, we study the possibility of using a new non-homogeneous stochastic diffusion process based on the Rayleigh density function to model the evolution of the active cases of COVID-19 in Morocco. First, the main probabilistic characteristics and analytic expression of the proposed process are obtained. Next, the parameters of the model are estimated by the maximum likelihood methodology. This estimation and the subsequent statistical inference are based on the discrete observation of the variable x(t) “number of active cases of COVID-19 in Morocco” by using the data for the period of 28 January to 4 March 2022. Then, we analyze the mean functions by using simulated data for fit and forecast purposes. Finally, we explore the illustration of using this new process to fit and forecast the active cases of COVID-19 data.

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基于新随机瑞利扩散过程的COVID-19活跃病例预测

在这项工作中，我们研究了使用基于瑞利密度函数的新的非均匀随机扩散过程来模拟摩洛哥COVID-19活跃病例演变的可能性。首先，得到了该过程的主要概率特征和解析表达式。其次，用最大似然法估计模型的参数。这一估计和随后的统计推断是基于使用2022年1月28日至3月4日期间的数据对变量x(t)“摩洛哥COVID-19活跃病例数”的离散观察得出的。然后，我们通过模拟数据分析均值函数，以达到拟合和预测的目的。最后，我们探讨了使用该新过程拟合和预测COVID-19活跃病例数据的说明。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Fractal and Fractional MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS-

CiteScore

4.60

自引率

18.50%

发文量

632

审稿时长

11 weeks

期刊介绍： Fractal and Fractional is an international, scientific, peer-reviewed, open access journal that focuses on the study of fractals and fractional calculus, as well as their applications across various fields of science and engineering. It is published monthly online by MDPI and offers a cutting-edge platform for research papers, reviews, and short notes in this specialized area. The journal, identified by ISSN 2504-3110, encourages scientists to submit their experimental and theoretical findings in great detail, with no limits on the length of manuscripts to ensure reproducibility. A key objective is to facilitate the publication of detailed research, including experimental procedures and calculations. "Fractal and Fractional" also stands out for its unique offerings: it warmly welcomes manuscripts related to research proposals and innovative ideas, and allows for the deposition of electronic files containing detailed calculations and experimental protocols as supplementary material.