A weather-adaptive perspective to building cost estimation in Nigeria: exploring climate-induced cost variance

IF 2.1 Q2 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY
A. Amadi
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Abstract

PurposeUsing Nigeria, as a point of reference, this study aims to explore the applicability of climatic variables as analytically valid factors for conceptual cost estimation. This is in view of the vastness and topographical alignment of Nigeria's landmass, which makes it a country of extreme climatic variability from north to south. As construction costs in Nigeria, similarly, tend to show a north-south alignment, the study's objective is to establish cost-estimating relationships (CERs) between the variability of climatic elements and the variance in construction cost, to arouse interest in the concept.Design/methodology/approachDeploying correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis, significant associations/relationships between meteorological variables and building cost for selected locations, following a North-South transect of the major climatic zones, are sought, to explain climate-induced construction cost variance. Validation of the regression model was carried out using variance analysis and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error of a different dataset.FindingsClimatic indices of atmospheric moisture exhibited strong direct and partial correlations with construction costs, while sunshine hours and temperature were inversely correlated. The study further establishes statistically significant CERs between climatic variables and building cost in Nigeria, which accounted for 47.9% of the variance in construction cost across the climatic zones.Practical implicationsThe study outcome provides a statistically valid platform for the development of more elaborate analytical costing models, for prototype buildings to be cited in disparate climatic settings.Originality/valueThis study establishes the statistical validity of climatic variables in constituting CERs for predicting construction costs in disparate climatic settings.
尼日利亚建筑成本估算的天气适应性视角:探讨气候引起的成本差异
目的以尼日利亚为参考点,本研究旨在探讨气候变量作为概念成本估算的分析有效因素的适用性。这是考虑到尼日利亚陆地的广阔和地形线形,这使其成为一个从北到南气候变化极端的国家。同样,由于尼日利亚的建筑成本往往呈南北走向,该研究的目的是在气候因素的可变性和建筑成本的差异之间建立成本估算关系,以引起人们对这一概念的兴趣。设计/方法/方法采用相关性分析和多元回归分析,在主要气候带的南北样带之后,寻求选定地点的气象变量和建筑成本之间的显著关联/关系,以解释气候引起的建筑成本差异。使用方差分析和不同数据集的平均绝对百分比误差对回归模型进行验证。研究结果表明,大气湿度的气候指标与建筑成本具有很强的正相关和偏相关关系,而日照时数和温度呈负相关。该研究进一步确定了尼日利亚气候变量和建筑成本之间具有统计学意义的CER,占整个气候区建筑成本差异的47.9%。实际意义该研究结果为开发更详细的分析成本模型提供了一个统计有效的平台,以便在不同的气候环境中引用原型建筑。原创性/价值本研究确定了气候变量在构成CER时的统计有效性,用于预测不同气候环境下的建筑成本。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
18.20%
发文量
76
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation publishes findings on contemporary and original research towards sustaining, maintaining and managing existing buildings. The journal provides an interdisciplinary approach to the study of buildings, their performance and adaptation in order to develop appropriate technical and management solutions. This requires an holistic understanding of the complex interactions between the materials, components, occupants, design and environment, demanding the application and development of methodologies for diagnosis, prognosis and treatment in this multidisciplinary area. With rapid technological developments, a changing climate and more extreme weather, coupled with developing societal demands, the challenges to the professions responsible are complex and varied; solutions need to be rigorously researched and tested to navigate the dynamic context in which today''s buildings are to be sustained. Within this context, the scope and coverage of the journal incorporates the following indicative topics: • Behavioural and human responses • Building defects and prognosis • Building adaptation and retrofit • Building conservation and restoration • Building Information Modelling (BIM) • Building and planning regulations and legislation • Building technology • Conflict avoidance, management and disputes resolution • Digital information and communication technologies • Education and training • Environmental performance • Energy management • Health, safety and welfare issues • Healthy enclosures • Innovations and innovative technologies • Law and practice of dilapidation • Maintenance and refurbishment • Materials testing • Policy formulation and development • Project management • Resilience • Structural considerations • Surveying methodologies and techniques • Sustainability and climate change • Valuation and financial investment
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