{"title":"A weather-adaptive perspective to building cost estimation in Nigeria: exploring climate-induced cost variance","authors":"A. Amadi","doi":"10.1108/ijbpa-01-2023-0004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"PurposeUsing Nigeria, as a point of reference, this study aims to explore the applicability of climatic variables as analytically valid factors for conceptual cost estimation. This is in view of the vastness and topographical alignment of Nigeria's landmass, which makes it a country of extreme climatic variability from north to south. As construction costs in Nigeria, similarly, tend to show a north-south alignment, the study's objective is to establish cost-estimating relationships (CERs) between the variability of climatic elements and the variance in construction cost, to arouse interest in the concept.Design/methodology/approachDeploying correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis, significant associations/relationships between meteorological variables and building cost for selected locations, following a North-South transect of the major climatic zones, are sought, to explain climate-induced construction cost variance. Validation of the regression model was carried out using variance analysis and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error of a different dataset.FindingsClimatic indices of atmospheric moisture exhibited strong direct and partial correlations with construction costs, while sunshine hours and temperature were inversely correlated. The study further establishes statistically significant CERs between climatic variables and building cost in Nigeria, which accounted for 47.9% of the variance in construction cost across the climatic zones.Practical implicationsThe study outcome provides a statistically valid platform for the development of more elaborate analytical costing models, for prototype buildings to be cited in disparate climatic settings.Originality/valueThis study establishes the statistical validity of climatic variables in constituting CERs for predicting construction costs in disparate climatic settings.","PeriodicalId":44905,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijbpa-01-2023-0004","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
PurposeUsing Nigeria, as a point of reference, this study aims to explore the applicability of climatic variables as analytically valid factors for conceptual cost estimation. This is in view of the vastness and topographical alignment of Nigeria's landmass, which makes it a country of extreme climatic variability from north to south. As construction costs in Nigeria, similarly, tend to show a north-south alignment, the study's objective is to establish cost-estimating relationships (CERs) between the variability of climatic elements and the variance in construction cost, to arouse interest in the concept.Design/methodology/approachDeploying correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis, significant associations/relationships between meteorological variables and building cost for selected locations, following a North-South transect of the major climatic zones, are sought, to explain climate-induced construction cost variance. Validation of the regression model was carried out using variance analysis and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error of a different dataset.FindingsClimatic indices of atmospheric moisture exhibited strong direct and partial correlations with construction costs, while sunshine hours and temperature were inversely correlated. The study further establishes statistically significant CERs between climatic variables and building cost in Nigeria, which accounted for 47.9% of the variance in construction cost across the climatic zones.Practical implicationsThe study outcome provides a statistically valid platform for the development of more elaborate analytical costing models, for prototype buildings to be cited in disparate climatic settings.Originality/valueThis study establishes the statistical validity of climatic variables in constituting CERs for predicting construction costs in disparate climatic settings.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation publishes findings on contemporary and original research towards sustaining, maintaining and managing existing buildings. The journal provides an interdisciplinary approach to the study of buildings, their performance and adaptation in order to develop appropriate technical and management solutions. This requires an holistic understanding of the complex interactions between the materials, components, occupants, design and environment, demanding the application and development of methodologies for diagnosis, prognosis and treatment in this multidisciplinary area. With rapid technological developments, a changing climate and more extreme weather, coupled with developing societal demands, the challenges to the professions responsible are complex and varied; solutions need to be rigorously researched and tested to navigate the dynamic context in which today''s buildings are to be sustained. Within this context, the scope and coverage of the journal incorporates the following indicative topics: • Behavioural and human responses • Building defects and prognosis • Building adaptation and retrofit • Building conservation and restoration • Building Information Modelling (BIM) • Building and planning regulations and legislation • Building technology • Conflict avoidance, management and disputes resolution • Digital information and communication technologies • Education and training • Environmental performance • Energy management • Health, safety and welfare issues • Healthy enclosures • Innovations and innovative technologies • Law and practice of dilapidation • Maintenance and refurbishment • Materials testing • Policy formulation and development • Project management • Resilience • Structural considerations • Surveying methodologies and techniques • Sustainability and climate change • Valuation and financial investment