Specialization and Business Cycle Co-Movement in the Euro Area

IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS

ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3397307

Nestor Azcona

引用次数: 3

Abstract

This paper explores whether similarities in production structures have been an important determinant of business cycle co-movement in the Euro Area. We constructed an index of cross-country differences in industry composition using value added data from 62 sectors. Then we tested whether this specialization index can explain several measures of cross-country output and employment co-movement within the European Monetary Union between 1999 and 2016. The results indicate that changes in real gross domestic product exhibit a stronger correlation between countries producing similar goods and services. However, the composition of output cannot explain co-movement in employment or unemployment. We checked the robustness of the results by dividing the sample period and by adding several control variables, including bilateral trade intensity and differences in country risk spreads.

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欧元区的专业化与商业周期协同

本文探讨了生产结构的相似性是否已成为欧元区商业周期共同运动的重要决定因素。我们利用62个行业的增加值数据构建了一个行业构成的跨国差异指数。然后，我们测试了专业化指数是否可以解释1999年至2016年欧洲货币联盟内部跨国产出和就业协同运动的几个指标。结果表明，在生产类似商品和服务的国家之间，实际国内生产总值的变化表现出更强的相关性。然而，产出的构成不能解释就业或失业的共同运动。我们通过划分样本周期和添加几个控制变量(包括双边贸易强度和国家风险息差的差异)来检查结果的稳健性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.30

自引率

16.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Atlantic Economic Journal (AEJ) has an international reputation for excellent articles in all interest areas, without regard to fields or methodological preferences. Founded in 1973 by the International Atlantic Economic Society, a need was identified for increased communication among scholars from different countries. For over 30 years, the AEJ has continuously sought articles that traced some of the most critical economic changes and developments to occur on the global level. The journal''s goal is to facilitate and synthesize economic research across nations to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas and scholarly research. Contributors include some of the world''s most respected economists and financial specialists, including Nobel laureates and leading government officials. AEJ welcomes both theoretical and empirical articles, as well as public policy papers. All manuscripts are submitted to a double-blind peer review process. In addition to formal publication of full-length articles, the AEJ provides an opportunity for less formal communication through its Anthology section. A small point may not be worthy of a full-length, formal paper but is important enough to warrant dissemination to other researchers. Research in progress may be of interest to other scholars in the field. A research approach ending in negative results needs to be shared to save others similar pitfalls. The Anthology section has been established to facilitate these forms of communication. Anthologies provide a means by which short manuscripts of less than 500 words can quickly appear in the AEJ. All submissions are formally reviewed by the Board of Editors. Officially cited as: Atl Econ J