What Are the Short- to Medium-Term Effects of Extreme Weather on the Croatian Economy?

IF 0.4 Q4 ECONOMICS

Croatian Economic Survey Pub Date : 2023-06-26 DOI:10.15179/ces.25.1.2

Tihana Škrinjarić

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This research examines the short- to medium-term effects of weather changes on the Croatian economy by observing a simple model of an economy that includes changes in extreme weather events. Monthly data from 1999 to 2022 on the growth of the index of industrial production, inflation, energy inflation, changes in the unemployment rate, and selected weather variables are utilized to estimate several vector autoregression (VAR) models. The main finding indicates that inflation is mainly affected by weather shocks, especially drought. This means that monetary policy needs to consider this, mainly due to weather extremes being more frequent and of greater magnitudes. Furthermore, the insurance industry could also benefit from such findings due to the first quantification of such results on Croatian data.

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极端天气对克罗地亚经济的中短期影响是什么?

这项研究通过观察一个包括极端天气事件变化的简单经济模型，考察了天气变化对克罗地亚经济的中短期影响。利用1999年至2022年关于工业生产指数增长、通货膨胀、能源通货膨胀、失业率变化和选定天气变量的月度数据来估计几个向量自回归（VAR）模型。主要研究结果表明，通货膨胀主要受天气冲击的影响，特别是干旱。这意味着货币政策需要考虑这一点，主要是由于极端天气更加频繁和严重。此外，保险业也可以从这些发现中受益，因为克罗地亚数据首次量化了这些结果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Croatian Economic Survey ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： The journal Croatian Economic Survey is a Diamond Open Access journal defined by the following characteristics: -Peer review: the article goes through the journal''s process of a double-blind peer review. -Public access: both the author and the public have immediate access to the final, published version of the article. -Funding model: both the author and the public pay no fee to the journal. The journal is financially supported by the Ministry of Science and Education of the Republic of Croatia. Croatian Economic Survey is an English-language, peer-reviewed scholarly journal published by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb in Croatia and financed by the Croatian Ministry of Science and Education. The journal aims to serve as a forum for academics and practitioners by publishing high-quality research papers on topics in all areas of economics. Special focus is given to post-socialist Europe. Comparative studies are especially encouraged, since these countries share a similar socio-economic background and comparative studies offer a valuable source of insight for policy formulation as well as a basis for competitive benchmarking. The journal welcomes empirical and policy-oriented papers relevant to a broader international audience. Contributions need not be limited solely to economics; submissions from other related disciplines are encouraged.