Variation of Leaf Area Index (LAI) under Changing Climate: Kadolkele Mangrove Forest, Sri Lanka

IF 2.1 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Randika K. Makumbura, Upaka S. Rathnayake
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Mangroves are an essential plant community in coastal ecosystems. While the importance of mangrove ecosystems is well acknowledged, climate change is expected to have a considerable negative impact on them, especially in terms of temperature, precipitation, sea level rise (SLR), ocean currents, and increasing storminess. Sri Lanka ranks near the bottom of the list of countries researching this problem, even though the scientific community's interest in examining the variation in mangrove health in response to climate change has gained significant attention. Consequently, this study illustrates how the leaf area index, a measure of mangrove health, fluctuates in response to varying precipitation, particularly during droughts in Sri Lanka's Kadolkele mangrove forest. The measurements of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were used to produce the leaf area index (LAI), which was then combined with the standard precipitation index (SPI) to estimate the health of the mangroves. The climate scenario, RCP8.5, was used to forecast future SPI (2021–2100), and LAI was modeled under the observed (1991–2019) and expected (2021–2100) drought events. The study reveals that the forecasted drought intensities modeled using the RCP8.5 scenario have no significant variations on LAI, even though some severe and extreme drought conditions exist. Nevertheless, the health of the mangrove ecosystem is predicted to deteriorate under drought conditions and rebound when drought intensity decreases. The extreme drought state (-2.05) was identified in 2064; therefore, LAI has showcased its lowest (0.04). LAI and SPI are projected to gradually increase from 2064 to 2100, while high fluctuations are observed from 2021 to 2064. Limited availability of LAI values with required details (measured date, time, and sample locations) and cloud-free Landsat images have affected the study results. This research presents a comprehensive understanding of Kadolkele mangrove forest under future droughts; thus, alarming relevant authorities to develop management plans to safeguard these critical ecosystems.
气候变化下叶面积指数(LAI)的变化:斯里兰卡Kadolkele红树林
红树林是沿海生态系统中重要的植物群落。尽管红树林生态系统的重要性得到了广泛认可,但气候变化预计将对其产生相当大的负面影响,特别是在温度、降水、海平面上升、洋流和风暴增加方面。斯里兰卡在研究这一问题的国家名单中几乎垫底,尽管科学界对研究红树林健康因气候变化而变化的兴趣已经引起了极大的关注。因此,这项研究说明了衡量红树林健康的叶面积指数是如何随着降水量的变化而波动的,特别是在斯里兰卡卡多尔克勒红树林干旱期间。归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)的测量用于产生叶面积指数(LAI),然后将其与标准降水指数(SPI)相结合来估计红树林的健康状况。气候情景RCP8.5用于预测未来SPI(2021–2100),LAI是在观测到的(1991–2019)和预期的(2021–21000)干旱事件下建模的。研究表明,尽管存在一些严重和极端干旱条件,但使用RCP8.5情景建模的预测干旱强度对LAI没有显著变化。然而,预计红树林生态系统的健康状况将在干旱条件下恶化,并在干旱强度降低时反弹。2064年出现极端干旱状态(-2.05);因此,LAI显示出其最低值(0.04)。预计从2064年到2100年,LAI和SPI将逐渐增加,而从2021年到2064年,观察到高波动。具有所需细节(测量日期、时间和样本位置)的LAI值和无云陆地卫星图像的有限可用性影响了研究结果。这项研究对未来干旱下的卡多尔克勒红树林有了全面的了解;因此,提醒有关当局制定管理计划,以保护这些关键的生态系统。
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来源期刊
Advances in Meteorology
Advances in Meteorology 地学天文-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
3.40%
发文量
80
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Advances in Meteorology is a peer-reviewed, Open Access journal that publishes original research articles as well as review articles in all areas of meteorology and climatology. Topics covered include, but are not limited to, forecasting techniques and applications, meteorological modeling, data analysis, atmospheric chemistry and physics, climate change, satellite meteorology, marine meteorology, and forest meteorology.
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