Simulating the Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in Three New Zealand Headwater Basins Using CMIP6 Datasets

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
J. Risley, C. Zammit
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Abstract

Air temperature and precipitation outputs from 10 CMIP6 GCMs were input to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System hydrologic model to evaluate water and energy responses in three headwater basins to projected climate change over the twenty-first century. The headwater basins (398–801 km2) are located within the Mataura River basin in the South Island of New Zealand. CMIP6 datasets included two emission scenarios [shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5]. Half of the 10 GCMs selected in the study have equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) values above 4.5°C, which has been considered the upper end of equilibrium climate sensitivity. Modeling results included increased annual air temperature, evapotranspiration, and precipitation by the end of the twenty-first century for both SSP emissions scenarios, both high- and low-ECS GCMs, and all three headwater basins. Monthly precipitation and evapotranspiration totals also increased for all or most months. Monthly streamflow changes generally corresponded with monthly precipitation changes. Snowpack decreased significantly in depth and seasonal duration in all basins. However, streamflow increased for all SSP and ECS groups and basins because increased precipitation was consistently greater than increased evapotranspiration losses. Sources of uncertainty include the GCMs, climate sensitivity, downscaling, bias adjustment, emission scenarios, and the hydrologic model. Simulated hydrologic responses based on climate data from GCMs with ECS values of greater than 4.5°C could be less plausible since previous studies have suggested true ECS ranges from 1.5° to 4.5°C.
利用CMIP6数据集模拟新西兰三个水源流域对气候变化的水文响应
10个CMIP6 GCM的气温和降水输出被输入降水径流建模系统水文模型,以评估21世纪三个源头流域对预计气候变化的水和能源响应。源头流域(398-801平方公里)位于新西兰南岛的马陶拉河流域内。CMIP6数据集包括两种排放情景[共享社会经济途径(SSP)SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5]。在研究中选择的10个GCM中,有一半的平衡气候敏感性(ECS)值高于4.5°C,这被认为是平衡气候敏感性的上限。建模结果包括到21世纪末,SSP排放情景、ECS GCM高和低情景以及所有三个源头流域的年气温、蒸散量和降水量的增加。所有或大部分月份的月降水量和蒸散总量也有所增加。月流量变化通常与月降水量变化相对应。所有盆地的积雪深度和季节持续时间均显著减少。然而,所有SSP和ECS组和流域的流量都有所增加,因为降水量的增加始终大于蒸散损失的增加。不确定性的来源包括全球气候模型、气候敏感性、缩小规模、偏差调整、排放情景和水文模型。基于ECS值大于4.5°C的GCM气候数据的模拟水文响应可能不太可信,因为之前的研究表明真实的ECS范围在1.5°至4.5°C之间。
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来源期刊
Earth Interactions
Earth Interactions 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
5.00%
发文量
16
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Publishes research on the interactions among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere, including, but not limited to, research on human impacts, such as land cover change, irrigation, dams/reservoirs, urbanization, pollution, and landslides. Earth Interactions is a joint publication of the American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, and American Association of Geographers.
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