Spatial Sampling Design to Improve the Efficiency of the Estimation of the Critical Parameters of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic

IF 0.5 4区数学 Q4 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS

Journal of Official Statistics Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI:10.2478/jos-2022-0019

G. Alleva, G. Arbia, P. D. Falorsi, V. Nardelli, A. Zuliani

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Abstract Given the urgent informational needs connected with the diffusion of infection with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, in this article, we propose a sampling design for building a continuous-time surveillance system. Compared with other observational strategies, the proposed method has three important elements of strength and originality: (1) it aims to provide a snapshot of the phenomenon at a single moment in time, and it is designed to be a continuous survey that is repeated in several waves over time, taking different target variables during different stages of the development of the epidemic into account; (2) the statistical optimality properties of the proposed estimators are formally derived and tested with a Monte Carlo experiment; and (3) it is rapidly operational as this property is required by the emergency connected with the diffusion of the virus. The sampling design is thought to be designed with the diffusion of SAR-CoV-2 in Italy during the spring of 2020 in mind. However, it is very general, and we are confident that it can be easily extended to other geographical areas and to possible future epidemic outbreaks. Formal proofs and a Monte Carlo exercise highlight that the estimators are unbiased and have higher efficiency than the simple random sampling scheme.

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提高SARS-CoV-2疫情关键参数估计效率的空间抽样设计

针对COVID-19大流行对感染扩散的迫切信息需求，本文提出了一种构建连续时间监测系统的抽样设计。与其他观测策略相比，所提出的方法具有三个重要的优势和独创性:(1)其目的是提供某一时刻现象的快照，并设计为连续调查，在一段时间内多次重复，考虑到疫情发展不同阶段的不同目标变量;(2)正式推导了所提估计量的统计最优性，并用蒙特卡罗实验进行了检验;(3)由于与病毒扩散有关的紧急情况需要这种特性，它可以迅速运行。采样设计被认为是考虑到2020年春季sars - cov -2在意大利的扩散而设计的。然而，它是非常笼统的，我们相信，它可以很容易地扩展到其他地理区域和未来可能爆发的流行病。正式证明和蒙特卡罗实验表明，该估计量是无偏的，并且比简单的随机抽样方案具有更高的效率。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Official Statistics STATISTICS & PROBABILITY-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

9.10%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： JOS is an international quarterly published by Statistics Sweden. We publish research articles in the area of survey and statistical methodology and policy matters facing national statistical offices and other producers of statistics. The intended readers are researchers or practicians at statistical agencies or in universities and private organizations dealing with problems which concern aspects of production of official statistics.