The level of delay caused by crashes (LDC) in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas: a comparative analysis of improved Random Forests and LightGBM

IF 1.8 4区工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, MANUFACTURING

International Journal of Crashworthiness Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI:10.1080/13588265.2022.2130624

Zehao Wang, Pengpeng Jiao, Jianyu Wang, Qiong Huang, Rujian Li, H. Lu

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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Abstract Traffic crashes cause serious traffic delay and have some unobserved heterogeneity in different areas. Using Texas accident data in 2020, this article aims to predict the level of delay caused by crashes (LDC) accurately and efficiently and discuss the difference between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. A framework based on Random Forests (RF) and LightGBM (LGBM) is developed to measure the association between LDC and its possible risk factors. At first, the most relevant variables in different areas were recognised through recursive feature elimination based on logistic regression. Then, LDC were forecasted by classifiers after grid search hyper parameters. To resolve data imbalance, two threshold moving methods of maximisation G-mean and F1-score were used. Finally, SHapley Additive explanation was employed to interpret the best model. The results indicate that the improved RF performs better in metropolitan areas and the improved LGBM performs better in non-metropolitan areas. In addition, Highway, spring and sunrise are the main risk factors of higher LDC in the two areas. And excessive wind speed and temperature in metropolitan areas can lead to higher LDC while in non-metropolitan areas it is pressure and apparent temperature.

查看原文本刊更多论文

大都市和非大都市地区的撞车事故（LDC）造成的延误程度：改进的随机森林和LightGBM的比较分析

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Crashworthiness 工程技术-工程：机械

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

10.50%

发文量

审稿时长

2.3 months

期刊介绍： International Journal of Crashworthiness is the only journal covering all matters relating to the crashworthiness of road vehicles (including cars, trucks, buses and motorcycles), rail vehicles, air and spacecraft, ships and submarines, and on- and off-shore installations. The Journal provides a unique forum for the publication of original research and applied studies relevant to an audience of academics, designers and practicing engineers. International Journal of Crashworthiness publishes both original research papers (full papers and short communications) and state-of-the-art reviews. International Journal of Crashworthiness welcomes papers that address the quality of response of materials, body structures and energy-absorbing systems that are subjected to sudden dynamic loading, papers focused on new crashworthy structures, new concepts in restraint systems and realistic accident reconstruction.