Domestic terrorism and leader survival, 1970–2014

Abstract

Abstract Recent scholarly efforts to reveal the political effects of transnational terrorism are encouraging. They contribute to our understanding of how terrorism affects the targeted societies. We attempt to extend this line of research by examining the political impact of domestic terrorism. Domestic incidents overwhelmingly outnumber transnational incidents. In addition, the differences between domestic and transnational incidents may produce political outcomes. We examine the impact of domestic terrorism on the political survival of national leaders in the targeted societies. Our cross-national time-series analysis on a worldwide sample of 172 countries over the 1970–2014 period shows that domestic terrorism has a significant positive impact on leadership change. This impact is robust to various estimation techniques. This result suggests that heightened incidents of domestic terrorism hasten the removal of incumbent leaders in the targeted societies.