Accident Sequence Precursor Analysis of an Incident in a Japanese Nuclear Power Plant Based on Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

IF 1 4区工程技术 Q3 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI:10.1155/2023/7402217

K. Kubo

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an effective methodology that could be used to improve the safety of nuclear power plants in a reasonable manner. Dynamic PRA, as an advanced PRA, allows for more realistic and detailed analyses by handling time-dependent information. However, the applications of this method to practical problems are limited because it remains in the research and development stage. This study aimed to investigate the possibility of utilizing dynamic PRA in risk-informeddecision-making. Specifically, the author performed an accident sequence precursor (ASP) analysis on the failure of emergency diesel generators that occurred at Unit 1 of the Tomari Nuclear Power Plant in Japan using dynamic PRA. The results were evaluated by comparison with the results of simplified classical PRA. The findings indicated that dynamic PRA may estimate lower risks compared with those obtained from classical PRA by reasonable modeling of alternating current power recovery. The author also showed that dynamic PRA can provide detailed information that cannot be obtained with classical PRA, such as uncertainty distribution of core damage timing and importance measure considering the system failure timing.

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基于动态概率风险评估的日本核电站事故序列前兆分析

概率风险评估(PRA)是一种有效的方法，可以合理地提高核电站的安全性。动态PRA作为一种高级PRA，通过处理与时间相关的信息，可以进行更现实、更详细的分析。然而，由于该方法还处于研究开发阶段，在实际问题中的应用受到了限制。本研究旨在探讨在风险知情决策中利用动态PRA的可能性。具体而言，作者利用动态PRA对日本托马里核电站1号机组应急柴油发电机故障进行了事故序列前兆(ASP)分析。将结果与简化的经典PRA结果进行比较。研究结果表明，与传统PRA相比，通过对交流功率回收进行合理建模，动态PRA估计的风险更低。动态PRA可以提供经典PRA无法获得的详细信息，如堆芯损坏时间的不确定性分布和考虑系统故障时间的重要性度量。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

9.10%

发文量

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations is an international scientific journal that aims to make available knowledge on issues related to the nuclear industry and to promote development in the area of nuclear sciences and technologies. The endeavor associated with the establishment and the growth of the journal is expected to lend support to the renaissance of nuclear technology in the world and especially in those countries where nuclear programs have not yet been developed.