Predicting the Maximum of Solar Cycle 25: Total Power at the Cycle’s Beginning and in the Previous Cycle as Precursor

IF 0.5 4区物理与天体物理 Q4 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS

Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies Pub Date : 2023-08-04 DOI:10.3103/S0884591323040062

M. I. Pishkalo, I. E. Vasiljeva

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Abstract—

Solar activity, the most famous manifestation of which is sunspots, varies with a period of approximately 11 years. Two 11-year cycles form the 22-year magnetic cycle of the Sun. Changes in solar activity lead to changes in the interplanetary and the near-Earth space and affect the Earth and the human environment. The ability to predict solar activity in advance is important both for some practical tasks of cosmonautics and for a better understanding of the nature of those physical processes at the Sun which are responsible for the solar activity. In the work, the interrelationship of the powers (sum of the monthly sunspot numbers in the cycle) of pairs of “even-numbered to odd-numbered” and “odd-numbered to even-numbered” cycles was investigated, and an attempt was made to forecast the maximum of the current solar cycle 25, which began in December 2019, using the value of the total power of the previous solar cycle 24. It was found that there is a significant correlation between the power and amplitude of the odd-numbered cycle and the power of the previous even-numbered cycle (r = 0.897, p = 0.00043 and r = 0.785, p = 0.00715, respectively; if excluding the pair of cycles four to five). A slightly smaller correlation is observed between the amplitude of the odd-numbered cycle and the amplitude of the previous even-numbered cycle (r = 0.712, p = 0.0209). Regression equations between the relevant parameters were found. The calculated predicted amplitude of solar cycle 25 is 155.6 ± 42.4 for August 2024 or 172.1 ± 46.5 for June 2024 if the power of solar cycle 24 or its maximal amplitude is used as precursor, respectively. For solar cycles 12 to 24, the relationship of the same parameters was investigated separately in the N- and S-hemispheres. It was also found that the southern hemisphere will be slightly more active than the northern one in solar cycle 25; the predicted maximal amplitudes in the N- and S-hemispheres are 86.9 ± 41.1 and 91.7 ± 29.7, respectively. The power of the solar cycle for the first 30 months from its start is closely correlated (r = 0.83, р = 5 × 10^–7) both with the amplitude of the next maximum of the cycle and with the duration of the rising phase of the cycle. This makes it possible to obtain, in the authors' opinion, the most probable forecast of the maximum of solar cycle 25 for today, i.e., 136 ± 36 for February 2025. All predictions obtained in this work indicate that solar cycle 25 will be stronger than the previous solar cycle 24.

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预测太阳活动周期25的最大值:周期开始时的总能量和前一个周期的前驱

太阳活动，其中最著名的表现是太阳黑子，变化周期约为11年。两个11年的周期形成了22年的太阳磁场周期。太阳活动的变化导致行星际和近地空间的变化，影响地球和人类环境。提前预测太阳活动的能力对于一些实际的航天任务和更好地了解太阳上那些导致太阳活动的物理过程的性质都是很重要的。在工作中，研究了“偶数到奇数”和“奇数到偶数”周期对的功率(周期中每月太阳黑子数之和)的相互关系，并试图利用前一个太阳周期24的总功率值来预测当前太阳周期25的最大值，该周期始于2019年12月。结果发现，奇数周期的幂次和幅值与之前的偶数周期幂次之间存在显著的相关关系(r = 0.897, p = 0.00043; r = 0.785, p = 0.00715);如果不包括对周期(4到5)。奇数周期的振幅与前一个偶数周期的振幅之间的相关性略小(r = 0.712, p = 0.0209)。建立了相关参数之间的回归方程。以第24太阳周期的振幅为前驱，预测2024年8月第25太阳周期振幅为155.6±42.4,2024年6月第25太阳周期振幅为172.1±46.5。对于太阳活动周期12 ~ 24，分别研究了南北半球相同参数的关系。在太阳活动周期25中，南半球比北半球稍微活跃一些;预测北半球和南半球的最大振幅分别为86.9±41.1和91.7±29.7。太阳周期开始后的前30个月的能量与周期下一个最大值的振幅和周期上升阶段的持续时间密切相关(r = 0.83, r = 5 × 10-7)。在作者看来，这使得有可能获得今天太阳活动周期25最大值的最可能预报，即2025年2月的136±36。在这项工作中得到的所有预测都表明，第25太阳活动周期将比之前的第24太阳活动周期更强。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS-

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

40.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies is an international peer reviewed journal that publishes original regular and review papers on positional and theoretical astronomy, Earth’s rotation and geodynamics, dynamics and physics of bodies of the Solar System, solar physics, physics of stars and interstellar medium, structure and dynamics of the Galaxy, extragalactic astronomy, atmospheric optics and astronomical climate, instruments and devices, and mathematical processing of astronomical information. The journal welcomes manuscripts from all countries in the English or Russian language.