Quantitative and dynamic scenario analysis of SDGs outcomes upon global sustainability 1990–2050

Abstract

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are the keystone policy framework for countries to achieve sustainable development. However, in fulfilling the SDGs, there is no definitive evaluation of the potential long-term outcomes upon the level, nature, and dynamics of global sustainability. This is crucial to understand, as otherwise, governments and societies may implement policies which achieve the SDGs, but are detrimental to the long-term global co-evolutionary environment-human relationship and system. Therefore, this paper determines and evaluates the potential global sustainability outcomes of the implementation of the SDGs for the specified period of 1990–2050. This is achieved by the application of the Sustainability Dynamics Framework to the results of the Earth3 model. The Earth3 model evaluated the degree of success of implementing the SDGs in respect to four development scenarios: (1) Same (business-as-usual); (2) Faster; (3) Harder and (4) Smarter. The results from the SDF application indicate that Scenario 4 (Smarter) had the best potential outcomes of the scenarios evaluated, approaching a borderline weak-strong sustainability state by the end of the specified period. The other scenarios had relatively stagnant levels of very weak sustainability. Based upon the results obtained, the broader context and implications are discussed, primarily in respect to the role and impact of the SDGs. The paper concludes by stating that humanity as a species needs to fundamentally transform its relationship with the environment, or risk being lost not only as a species, but also to the planet as well.