From green to ripe: Dynamics of peacemaking in Colombia (1998–2016)

IF 1.3 4区社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY

Rationality and Society Pub Date : 2021-06-25 DOI:10.1177/10434631211024242

J. Ríos, Manuel Hidalgo, L. Medina

引用次数: 2

Abstract

Armed conflict in Colombia with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC-EP) was only settled after 50 years and several attempts at negotiations. This sequence of events fits the pattern of “conflict ripeness” first proposed by William Zartman. But using a successful settlement as a way to determine ripeness can be tautological. To address this issue, we develop a formal model to identify the level of ripeness at which a conflict is settled. In an overripe conflict both parties end up spending resources in a military build-up that is out of proportion with what they obtain in the final settlement. We show that such overripeness is exacerbated by the access to resources and by the factional heterogeneity within the two sides. We illustrate these dynamics by looking in detail at the attempts at negotiation between Colombia’s government and the FARC-EP. To that end, we combine statistical data, some previously undisclosed, and interviews with some key participants.

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从绿色到成熟：哥伦比亚缔造和平的动力（1998-2006）

哥伦比亚与哥伦比亚革命武装力量（FARC-EP）的武装冲突在经过50年的多次谈判后才得以解决。这一系列事件符合William Zartman首次提出的“冲突成熟”模式。但是，使用一个成功的解决方案来确定成熟度可能是重复的。为了解决这个问题，我们开发了一个正式的模型来确定解决冲突的成熟程度。在一场过于成熟的冲突中，双方最终都会在军事集结中花费资源，这与他们在最终解决方案中获得的资源不成比例。我们表明，获得资源和双方派系的异质性加剧了这种过度扩张。我们通过详细观察哥伦比亚政府与哥伦比亚革命武装力量-人民军之间的谈判尝试来说明这些动态。为此，我们结合了一些以前未公开的统计数据，以及对一些关键参与者的采访。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Rationality and Society SOCIOLOGY-

CiteScore

1.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Rationality & Society focuses on the growing contributions of rational-action based theory, and the questions and controversies surrounding this growth. Why Choose Rationality and Society? The trend toward ever-greater specialization in many areas of intellectual life has lead to fragmentation that deprives scholars of the ability to communicate even in closely adjoining fields. The emergence of the rational action paradigm as the inter-lingua of the social sciences is a remarkable exception to this trend. It is the one paradigm that offers the promise of bringing greater theoretical unity across disciplines such as economics, sociology, political science, cognitive psychology, moral philosophy and law.