Drivers of climate variability and increasing water salinity impacts on the farmer’s income risk with future outlook mitigation

IF 3.5 3区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI:10.1108/ijccsm-08-2021-0092

A. Khan, S. Khan, M. Ali, Aftab Khan, Y. Hayat, Jianchao Luo

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose The main aim of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change and water salinity on farmer’s income risk with future outlook mitigation. Salinity and climate change are a threat to agricultural productivity worldwide. However, the combined effects of climate change and salinity impacts on farmers' income are not well understood, particularly in developing countries. Design/methodology/approach The response-yield function and general maximum entropy methods were used to predict the impact of temperature, precipitation and salinity on crop yield. The target minimization of total absolute deviations (MOTAD)-positive mathematical programming model was used to simulate the impact of climate change and salinity on socioeconomic and environmental indicators. In the end, a multicriteria decision-making model was used, aiming at the selection of suitable climate scenarios. Findings The results revealed that precipitation shows a significantly decreasing trend, while temperature and groundwater salinity (EC) illustrate a significantly increasing trend. Climate change and EC negatively impact the farmer's income and water shadow prices. Maximum reduction in income and water shadow prices was observed for A2 scenario (−12.4% and 19.4%) during 2050. The environmental index was the most important, with priority of 43.4% compared to socioeconomic indicators. Subindex amount of water used was also significant in study area, with 28.1% priority. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution ranking system found that B1 was the best climatic scenario for adopting climate change adaptation in the research region. Originality/value In this study, farmers' income threats were assessed with the aspects of different climate scenario (A1, A1B and B1) over the horizons of 2030, 2040 and 2050 and three different indicators (economic, social and environmental) in Northwestern region of Pakistan. Only in arid and semiarid regions has climate change raised temperature and reduced rainfall, which are preliminary symptoms of growing salinity.

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气候变率和水盐度增加的驱动因素对农民收入风险的影响，未来前景有所缓解

目的本研究的主要目的是调查气候变化和水矿化度对农民收入风险的影响，并对未来前景进行缓解。盐度和气候变化对全球农业生产力构成威胁。然而，气候变化和盐度对农民收入的综合影响尚不清楚，尤其是在发展中国家。设计/方法/方法利用响应产量函数和一般最大熵方法预测温度、降水和盐度对作物产量的影响。使用总绝对偏差目标最小化（MOTAD）-正数学规划模型来模拟气候变化和盐度对社会经济和环境指标的影响。最后，使用了一个多准则决策模型，旨在选择合适的气候情景。结果表明，降水量呈显著下降趋势，而温度和地下水盐度呈显著上升趋势。气候变化和EC对农民收入和水影子价格产生负面影响。在2050年期间，A2情景的收入和水影子价格出现了最大降幅（-12.4%和19.4%）。环境指数是最重要的，与社会经济指标相比，其优先级为43.4%。子指标用水量在研究区也很显著，优先考虑28.1%。通过与理想解排序系统的相似性排序偏好技术发现，B1是研究区域采用气候变化适应的最佳气候情景。原创性/价值在本研究中，从2030年、2040年和2050年不同气候情景（A1、A1B和B1）以及巴基斯坦西北地区的三个不同指标（经济、社会和环境）的角度评估了农民的收入威胁。只有在干旱和半干旱地区，气候变化才会导致气温升高和降雨量减少，这是盐度增加的初步症状。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

8.10

自引率

8.30%

发文量

审稿时长

15 weeks

期刊介绍： Effective from volume 10 (2018), International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management is an open access journal. In the history of science there have been only a few issues which have mobilized the attention of scientists and policy-makers alike as the issue of climate change currently does. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management is an international forum that addresses the need for disseminating scholarly research, projects and other initiatives aimed to facilitate a better understanding of the subject matter of climate change. The journal publishes papers dealing with policy-making on climate change, and methodological approaches to cope with the problems deriving from climate change. It disseminates experiences from projects and case studies where due consideration to environmental, economic, social and political aspects is given and especially the links and leverages that can be attained by this holistic approach. It regards climate change under the perspective of its wider implications: for economic growth, water and food security, and for people''s survival – especially those living in the poorest communities in developing countries.