G20 at the Critical Juncture. Indonesia’s 2022 Presidency: Internal and External Shocks, Risks of Power Rebalancing and Eventual Demise, Causes of Resilience and Re-Equilibrium

Abstract

The 2022 Indonesian presidency was a critical juncture in the history of the Group of 20 (G20). Indonesia took over the presidency at a time when surging tensions between the U.S., China and Russiaimpeded concerted action by the G20 essential to secure sustainable and equitable recovery and long-term growth. Following the launch of the special military operation in Ukraine, the Group of 7 (G7) put immense pressure on the presidency to expel Russia from G20 activities. Emerging market countries wanted Russia to remain a member and regarded the pressure as an effort to enhance the G7’s dominance in the forum’s decision-making. Their choice was in favour of the G20, which can cooperate as an institute equally owned by emerging market and advanced countries, thus driving reform and restoring multilateralism. The G20 was deeply split. The presidency managed to save the agenda and ensured that the G20 remained a premier forum of cooperation between advanced and emerging economies in which the voice of the emerging economies at the negotiating table was strong and pluralism prevailed. This article analyses how the G20 survived the crisis activated by exogeneous and endogenous shocks in 2022 and whether and how it transformed in the course of this critical juncture. The article presents a qualitative case study of G20 dynamics in 2022, tracing interactions of the interdependent variables—actors, institutions, and agendas. The study applies a systemic process analysis and content analysis of the key actors’ narratives. The article starts with a review of the G20’s state-of play at the Indonesian presidency’s takeover from Italy and examines the new presidency’s agenda. It then outlines the main challenges the world and the G20 faced in early 2022, just before the eruption of the crisis. It goes on to explore the tensions within the G20, the roles played by the presidency, the G7, and the BRICS group formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The author focuses on the endeavor by Joko Widodo’s team to steer the G20 through the external pressures and internal confrontations, forge collective decisions on the presidency’s priorities, save the institution as a catalyst for global economic recovery, and advance an agenda that would respond to developing countries’ interests. It concludes by summing up variables affecting the G20’s performance and development in 2022 and the causes of its resilience.