Effects of statewide stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the central USA

IF 0.9 Q4 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES
Gary W. Reinbold
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

PurposeThis study seeks to determine the effects of stay-at-home orders in Spring 2020 on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the Central USA by comparing counties and health service areas that were and that were not subject to statewide orders.Design/methodology/approachThis study estimates the effects of statewide stay-at-home orders on new COVID-19 cases and deaths within 19 central states, of which 14 had stay-at-home orders. It uses synthetic control analysis and nearest neighbor matching to estimate the effects at two geographic levels: counties and health service areas.FindingsStatewide stay-at-home orders significantly reduced the number of new COVID-19 cases in the Central USA starting about three weeks after their effective dates; during the fourth week after their effective dates, the orders reduced the number of new cases per capita by 31%–57%. Statewide stay-at-home orders did not reduce the number of new COVID-19 deaths in the Central USA.Social implicationsThe main purpose of stay-at-home orders in Spring 2020 was to “flatten the curve” so that hospitalizations would not exceed capacity. It is likely that stay-at-home orders in the Central USA reduced hospitalizations to some extent, although the effect on hospitalizations was likely smaller than the effect on cases.Originality/valueThis is the first study of stay-at-home orders in the USA to limit the population to a group of interior states. All coastal states had statewide stay-at-home orders and comparing coastal states with orders to interior states without them may be problematic.
全州居家令对美国中部新冠肺炎病例和死亡的影响
目的本研究旨在通过比较曾受和未受全州命令约束的县和卫生服务区,确定2020年春季居家令对美国中部新冠肺炎病例和死亡的影响。设计/方法/方法本研究估计了全州居家令对19个中心州新增新冠肺炎病例和死亡的影响,其中14个州有居家令。它使用综合控制分析和最近邻匹配来估计两个地理级别的影响:县和卫生服务区。发现从生效日期后约三周开始,全州范围内的居家令显著减少了美国中部新增新冠肺炎病例数;在生效后的第四周,这些命令使人均新增病例数减少了31%-57%。全州范围内的居家令并没有减少美国中部新增新冠肺炎死亡人数。社会影响2020年春季居家令的主要目的是“使曲线变平”,这样住院人数就不会超过容量。美国中部的居家令可能在一定程度上减少了住院人数,尽管对住院人数的影响可能小于对病例的影响。独创性/价值这是美国首次对将人口限制在一组内陆州的居家令进行研究。所有沿海州都有全州范围的居家令,将有居家令的沿海州与没有居家令的内陆州进行比较可能会有问题。
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来源期刊
Journal of Health Research
Journal of Health Research HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES-
CiteScore
2.20
自引率
5.90%
发文量
0
审稿时长
12 weeks
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