A hierarchical Bayesian approach for calibration of stochastic material models

Abstract

Abstract This article recasts the traditional challenge of calibrating a material constitutive model into a hierarchical probabilistic framework. We consider a Bayesian framework where material parameters are assigned distributions, which are then updated given experimental data. Importantly, in true engineering setting, we are not interested in inferring the parameters for a single experiment, but rather inferring the model parameters over the population of possible experimental samples. In doing so, we seek to also capture the inherent variability of the material from coupon-to-coupon, as well as uncertainties around the repeatability of the test. In this article, we address this problem using a hierarchical Bayesian model. However, a vanilla computational approach is prohibitively expensive. Our strategy marginalizes over each individual experiment, decreasing the dimension of our inference problem to only the hyperparameter—those parameter describing the population statistics of the material model only. Importantly, this marginalization step, requires us to derive an approximate likelihood, for which, we exploit an emulator (built offline prior to sampling) and Bayesian quadrature, allowing us to capture the uncertainty in this numerical approximation. Importantly, our approach renders hierarchical Bayesian calibration of material models computational feasible. The approach is tested in two different examples. The first is a compression test of simple spring model using synthetic data; the second, a more complex example using real experiment data to fit a stochastic elastoplastic model for 3D-printed steel.