Application of the CORAL GMDH Algorithm for Modeling and Forecasting the National Income of Ukraine

Abstract

CORAL GMDH is a method of the inductive approach. In this article it is used for modeling and forecasting socio-economic processes. Here the CORAL GMDH algorithm is applied to solve three problems: recovery of missing data, modeling of macroeconomic indicators, and forecasting the gross national income (GNI). Also, the CORAL GMDH algorithm is used to build models in the problem of modeling the dependence of GNI on socio-demographic indicators and develop recommendations on how the state can influence the level of human capital development in the country by influencing certain socio-demographic indices. The results of modeling for Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland are compared.