Differential contagiousness of respiratory disease across the United States

IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Abhishek Mallela , Yen Ting Lin , William S. Hlavacek
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within a given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, R0. This number depends on both pathogen and population properties. On the basis of compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we used Bayesian inference and the next-generation matrix approach to estimate region-specific R0 values for 280 of 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States (US), which account for 95% of the US population living in urban areas and 82% of the total population. We focused on MSA populations after finding that these populations were more uniformly impacted by COVID-19 than state populations. Our maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates for R0 range from 1.9 to 7.7 and quantify the relative susceptibilities of regional populations to spread of respiratory diseases.

One-Sentence Summary

Initial contagiousness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 varied over a 4-fold range across urban areas of the United States.

美国各地呼吸道疾病的不同传染性。
传染病在给定人群中的初始传染性通过基本繁殖数R0来量化。这个数字取决于病原体和种群特性。在重现2019冠状病毒病(新冠肺炎)监测数据的划分模型的基础上,我们使用贝叶斯推理和下一代矩阵方法来估计美国384个大都市统计区(MSAs)中280个的区域特异性R0值,这些统计区占美国城市人口的95%和总人口的82%。我们将重点放在MSA人群上,因为我们发现这些人群比州人口更容易受到新冠肺炎的影响。我们对R0的最大后验(MAP)估计范围为1.9至7.7,并量化了地区人群对呼吸道疾病传播的相对易感性。一节课总结:2019冠状病毒疾病的初始传染性在美国城市地区的差异超过4倍。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Epidemics
Epidemics INFECTIOUS DISEASES-
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
7.90%
发文量
92
审稿时长
140 days
期刊介绍: Epidemics publishes papers on infectious disease dynamics in the broadest sense. Its scope covers both within-host dynamics of infectious agents and dynamics at the population level, particularly the interaction between the two. Areas of emphasis include: spread, transmission, persistence, implications and population dynamics of infectious diseases; population and public health as well as policy aspects of control and prevention; dynamics at the individual level; interaction with the environment, ecology and evolution of infectious diseases, as well as population genetics of infectious agents.
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