Abhishek Mallela , Yen Ting Lin , William S. Hlavacek
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within a given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, . This number depends on both pathogen and population properties. On the basis of compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we used Bayesian inference and the next-generation matrix approach to estimate region-specific values for 280 of 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States (US), which account for 95% of the US population living in urban areas and 82% of the total population. We focused on MSA populations after finding that these populations were more uniformly impacted by COVID-19 than state populations. Our maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates for range from 1.9 to 7.7 and quantify the relative susceptibilities of regional populations to spread of respiratory diseases.
One-Sentence Summary
Initial contagiousness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 varied over a 4-fold range across urban areas of the United States.
期刊介绍:
Epidemics publishes papers on infectious disease dynamics in the broadest sense. Its scope covers both within-host dynamics of infectious agents and dynamics at the population level, particularly the interaction between the two. Areas of emphasis include: spread, transmission, persistence, implications and population dynamics of infectious diseases; population and public health as well as policy aspects of control and prevention; dynamics at the individual level; interaction with the environment, ecology and evolution of infectious diseases, as well as population genetics of infectious agents.