Characteristics of the Washington cannabis market from 2014 to 2016.

Abstract

Background: The state of Washington legalized cannabis for adult use in 2012 and retail stores began to open in 2014. While details of the legal market have been tracked by the state, the total market for cannabis and characteristics of purchasers can only be identified through surveys.

Methods: Six cross-sectional samples of the Privatization of Spirits in Washington (PSW) surveys were collected between January 2014 and October 2016 with two in each year. Random digit dial procedures were used to recruit a sample aged 18 and older, with 40% of cases from mobile phones. A total of 5492 respondents participated. Analyses of the population-weighted sample utilized purchasing amounts and frequencies, use frequency and related measures to estimate total and mean amounts and expenditures. Sensitivity analyses were conducted for key assumptions.

Results: The market for cannabis flower is estimated to have increased from 158 metric tons and $1.23 billion in 2014 to 222 metric tons and $1.7 billion in 2016, with little change from 2014 to 2015. Purchases from legal sources, retail and dispensaries, were estimated at 69% of the total market. Daily or near daily (DND) users accounted for about 83% of sales in 2014, rising to 91% in 2016. The prevalence of past year use rose substantially from 25% in 2014 to 32% in 2016, with DND use rising from 10.2 to 11.3%. Average purchase amounts for DND users rose from 291 g in 2014 to 374 g in 2016, while mean amounts among non-DND users declined from 78 to 28.6 g.

Conclusions: The expansion of retail cannabis stores in Washington appears to have led to increased market size in 2016 with all of the increase attributed to DND users. Frequent users may be important to consider in legalization evaluations.