The optimal vaccination strategy to control COVID-19: a modeling study in Wuhan City, China.

IF 4.8 1区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Infectious Diseases of Poverty Pub Date : 2021-12-28 DOI:10.1186/s40249-021-00922-4

Ze-Yu Zhao, Yan Niu, Li Luo, Qing-Qing Hu, Tian-Long Yang, Mei-Jie Chu, Qiu-Ping Chen, Zhao Lei, Jia Rui, Cheng-Long Song, Sheng-Nan Lin, Yao Wang, Jing-Wen Xu, Yuan-Zhao Zhu, Xing-Chun Liu, Meng Yang, Jie-Feng Huang, Wei-Kang Liu, Bin Deng, Chan Liu, Zhuo-Yang Li, Pei-Hua Li, Yan-Hua Su, Ben-Hua Zhao, Wen-Long Huang, Roger Frutos, Tian-Mu Chen

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引用次数: 10

Abstract

Background: Reaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China.

Methods: We collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (R_eff) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups.

Results: A total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (R_eff = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (R_eff = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (R_eff = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45-64 years old.

Conclusions: Approximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15-64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China.

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控制COVID-19的最佳疫苗接种策略:中国武汉市的模型研究

背景:实现最佳疫苗接种率是控制2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行的一项重要公共卫生战略。本研究旨在通过基于中国武汉市当前COVID-19传播模式的年龄特异性模型，模拟控制疾病的最佳疫苗接种策略。方法:收集武汉市2019年12月2日至2020年3月16日确诊病例的发病资料和年龄两项COVID-19指标。报告病例分为4个年龄组:1组，≤14岁;第二组，15至44岁;第三组，44岁至64岁;第4组，≥65岁。建立了一个年龄特异性易感-暴露-有症状-无症状-恢复/去除模型来估计传播率并模拟最佳疫苗接种策略。利用有效繁殖数(Reff)估计不同年龄组间的传播相互作用。结果:2019年12月2日至2020年3月16日，武汉市共报告新发病例47 722例。武汉市旅行禁令实施前，2组传播率最高(ref = 4.28)，其次是2 ~ 3组(ref = 2.61)和2 ~ 4组(ref = 1.69)。中国应至少为85%的人口接种疫苗，以阻断传播。控制传播的重点应是每天为第2组5%至8%的个体接种疫苗(最终为第2组90%的个体接种疫苗)，其次是每天为第3组10%的个体接种疫苗(最终为第3组90%的个体接种疫苗)。然而，降低疾病严重程度的最佳疫苗接种策略将≥65岁的个体确定为优先群体，其次是45-64岁的个体。结论:中国约85%的人口(近12亿人)应接种疫苗，以建立免疫屏障，以安全考虑取消边境限制。基于这些结果，我们得出结论，在中国，90%的15-64岁成年人应首先接种疫苗以预防传播。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Infectious Diseases of Poverty Medicine-Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

CiteScore

16.70

自引率

1.20%

发文量

368

审稿时长

13 weeks

期刊介绍： Infectious Diseases of Poverty is a peer-reviewed, open access journal that focuses on essential public health questions related to infectious diseases of poverty. It covers a wide range of topics and methods, including the biology of pathogens and vectors, diagnosis and detection, treatment and case management, epidemiology and modeling, zoonotic hosts and animal reservoirs, control strategies and implementation, new technologies, and their application. The journal also explores the impact of transdisciplinary or multisectoral approaches on health systems, ecohealth, environmental management, and innovative technologies. It aims to provide a platform for the exchange of research and ideas that can contribute to the improvement of public health in resource-limited settings. In summary, Infectious Diseases of Poverty aims to address the urgent challenges posed by infectious diseases in impoverished populations. By publishing high-quality research in various areas, the journal seeks to advance our understanding of these diseases and contribute to the development of effective strategies for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.