Future Study Of Fire Disaster Risk In Iran Using A Scenario Planning Approach.

Abstract

Fire disasters are one of the most common technological disasters in Iran. These disasters have killed many people and resulted in significant economic loss. The "Plasco" building fire in 2017 is one example of these catastrophic disasters, when most of Iran was affected by its tragic news. Regarding the increasing number of risk factors for fire disasters, we aimed to study future scenarios for such disasters in the country. The present study is a futuristic study with an exploratory approach that uses an intuitive logic scenario development approach. We used document analysis, semi-structured interviews, and the Delphi technique to identify driving forces and develop scenario stories, and finally those scenario stories were validated. In the document analysis phase, 22 documents were identified and analysed. After collecting information related to documents and analysing ten interviews, 41 of the driving forces were identified. By drawing the scenario matrix, four alternative scenarios for the future of fire disasters were developed. Two dimensions for scenario development were the correct application of fire prevention laws and access to driving technologies. Policymakers can concentrate on these key factors for best planning in the mitigation of fire disasters. In addition, studying scenarios can help managers and officials to better develop strategic plans for disaster risk reduction.