{"title":"COVID-19 and output in Japan.","authors":"Daisuke Fujii, Taisuke Nakata","doi":"10.1007/s42973-021-00098-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We build a tractable SIR-macro-model with time-varying parameters and use it to explore various policy questions such as when to lift the state of emergency (SOE). An earlier departure from the SOE results in smaller output loss and more deaths in the short run. However, if the SOE is lifted too early, the number of new cases will surge and another SOE may need to be issued in the future, possibly resulting in both larger output loss and more deaths. That is, the tradeoff between output and infection that exists in the short run does not necessarily exist in the long run. Our model-based analysis-updated weekly since January 2021, frequently reported by media, and presented to policymakers on many occasions-has played a unique role in the policy response to the COVID-19 crisis in Japan.</p>","PeriodicalId":45642,"journal":{"name":"Japanese Economic Review","volume":"72 4","pages":"609-650"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8455238/pdf/","citationCount":"16","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Japanese Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s42973-021-00098-4","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2021/9/22 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Abstract
We build a tractable SIR-macro-model with time-varying parameters and use it to explore various policy questions such as when to lift the state of emergency (SOE). An earlier departure from the SOE results in smaller output loss and more deaths in the short run. However, if the SOE is lifted too early, the number of new cases will surge and another SOE may need to be issued in the future, possibly resulting in both larger output loss and more deaths. That is, the tradeoff between output and infection that exists in the short run does not necessarily exist in the long run. Our model-based analysis-updated weekly since January 2021, frequently reported by media, and presented to policymakers on many occasions-has played a unique role in the policy response to the COVID-19 crisis in Japan.
期刊介绍：
Started in 1950 by a group of leading Japanese economists under the title The Economic Studies Quarterly, the journal became the official publication of the Japanese Economic Association in 1959. As its successor, The Japanese Economic Review has become the Japanese counterpart of The American Economic Review, publishing substantial economic analysis of the highest quality across the whole field of economics from researchers both within and outside Japan. It also welcomes innovative and thought-provoking contributions with strong relevance to real economic issues, whether political, theoretical or policy-oriented.
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