{"title":"Current and future trade in livestock products.","authors":"D Enahoro, S Bahta, C Mensah, S Oloo, K M Rich","doi":"10.20506/rst.40.2.3232","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Rising per capita consumption, economic growth, and urbanisation, particularly in developing countries, have been driving an increased global demand for food. These changing socio-economic trends, which have greatly influenced changes in dietary patterns globally and, more specifically, have increased consumption of livestock products in developing countries, are expected to endure and to place new pressures on livestock-sector infrastructure and the delivery of veterinary services. This paper summarises current trade in meat and presents plausible projections for the future. It highlights the impact of animal disease on trade and considers the effect of ongoing disease outbreaks, particularly the outbreaks of African swine fever and COVID-19, on current and future trade dynamics. The authors analysed published statistics on the demand for, and international trade in, livestock products at national and regional levels and made projections of the same up to 2050, generated from an integrated model of the global agricultural and food system. The resulting analyses identified patterns of trade consistent with growing populations, increasing incomes and changing diets in developing countries. The analyses also pointed to slow expansion of livestock production, and the impacts of countries' disease status on livestock trade. For most of the livestock products analysed, economic model projections indicate increased consolidation of production and exports among a few countries. Marked increases in the trade in livestock products suggest a changing role for Veterinary Services in facilitating trade and extension in the years to come.","PeriodicalId":49596,"journal":{"name":"Revue Scientifique et Technique-Office International Des Epizooties","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Revue Scientifique et Technique-Office International Des Epizooties","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.20506/rst.40.2.3232","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"VETERINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Abstract
Rising per capita consumption, economic growth, and urbanisation, particularly in developing countries, have been driving an increased global demand for food. These changing socio-economic trends, which have greatly influenced changes in dietary patterns globally and, more specifically, have increased consumption of livestock products in developing countries, are expected to endure and to place new pressures on livestock-sector infrastructure and the delivery of veterinary services. This paper summarises current trade in meat and presents plausible projections for the future. It highlights the impact of animal disease on trade and considers the effect of ongoing disease outbreaks, particularly the outbreaks of African swine fever and COVID-19, on current and future trade dynamics. The authors analysed published statistics on the demand for, and international trade in, livestock products at national and regional levels and made projections of the same up to 2050, generated from an integrated model of the global agricultural and food system. The resulting analyses identified patterns of trade consistent with growing populations, increasing incomes and changing diets in developing countries. The analyses also pointed to slow expansion of livestock production, and the impacts of countries' disease status on livestock trade. For most of the livestock products analysed, economic model projections indicate increased consolidation of production and exports among a few countries. Marked increases in the trade in livestock products suggest a changing role for Veterinary Services in facilitating trade and extension in the years to come.
期刊介绍:
The Scientific and Technical Review is a periodical publication containing scientific information that is updated constantly. The Review plays a significant role in fulfilling some of the priority functions of the OIE. This peer-reviewed journal contains in-depth studies devoted to current scientific and technical developments in animal health and veterinary public health worldwide, food safety and animal welfare. The Review benefits from the advice of an Advisory Editorial Board and a Scientific and Technical Committee composed of top scientists from across the globe.