Benyun Shi, Jinxin Zheng, Shang Xia, Shan Lin, Xinyi Wang, Yang Liu, Xiao-Nong Zhou, Jiming Liu
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引用次数: 16
Abstract
Background: The pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused substantial disruptions to health services in the low and middle-income countries with a high burden of other diseases, such as malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on malaria transmission potential in malaria-endemic countries in Africa.
Methods: We present a data-driven method to quantify the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), could lead to the change of malaria transmission potential in 2020. First, we adopt a particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate epidemiological parameters in each country by fitting the time series of the cumulative number of reported COVID-19 cases. Then, we simulate the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 under two groups of NPIs: (1) contact restriction and social distancing, and (2) early identification and isolation of cases. Based on the simulated epidemic curves, we quantify the impact of COVID-19 epidemic and NPIs on the distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). Finally, by treating the total number of ITNs available in each country in 2020, we evaluate the negative effects of COVID-19 pandemic on malaria transmission potential based on the notion of vectorial capacity.
Results: We conduct case studies in four malaria-endemic countries, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia, in Africa. The epidemiological parameters (i.e., the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and the duration of infection [Formula: see text]) of COVID-19 in each country are estimated as follows: Ethiopia ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]), Nigeria ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]), Tanzania ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]), and Zambia ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]). Based on the estimated epidemiological parameters, the epidemic curves simulated under various NPIs indicated that the earlier the interventions are implemented, the better the epidemic is controlled. Moreover, the effect of combined NPIs is better than contact restriction and social distancing only. By treating the total number of ITNs available in each country in 2020 as a baseline, our results show that even with stringent NPIs, malaria transmission potential will remain higher than expected in the second half of 2020.
Conclusions: By quantifying the impact of various NPI response to the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria transmission potential, this study provides a way to jointly address the syndemic between COVID-19 and malaria in malaria-endemic countries in Africa. The results suggest that the early intervention of COVID-19 can effectively reduce the scale of the epidemic and mitigate its impact on malaria transmission potential.
期刊介绍：
Infectious Diseases of Poverty is a peer-reviewed, open access journal that focuses on essential public health questions related to infectious diseases of poverty. It covers a wide range of topics and methods, including the biology of pathogens and vectors, diagnosis and detection, treatment and case management, epidemiology and modeling, zoonotic hosts and animal reservoirs, control strategies and implementation, new technologies, and their application.
The journal also explores the impact of transdisciplinary or multisectoral approaches on health systems, ecohealth, environmental management, and innovative technologies. It aims to provide a platform for the exchange of research and ideas that can contribute to the improvement of public health in resource-limited settings.
In summary, Infectious Diseases of Poverty aims to address the urgent challenges posed by infectious diseases in impoverished populations. By publishing high-quality research in various areas, the journal seeks to advance our understanding of these diseases and contribute to the development of effective strategies for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.
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