{"title":"The propagation effect of commuting to work in the spatial transmission of COVID-19.","authors":"Timo Mitze, Reinhold Kosfeld","doi":"10.1007/s10109-021-00349-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This work is concerned with the spatiotemporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Germany. Our goal is twofold: first, we propose a novel spatial econometric model of the epidemic spread across NUTS-3 regions to identify the role played by commuting-to-work patterns for spatial disease transmission. Second, we explore if the imposed containment (lockdown) measures during the first pandemic wave in spring 2020 have affected the strength of this transmission channel. Our results from a spatial panel error correction model indicate that, without containment measures in place, commuting-to-work patterns were the first factor to significantly determine the spatial dynamics of daily COVID-19 cases in Germany. This indicates that job commuting, particularly during the initial phase of a pandemic wave, should be regarded and accordingly monitored as a relevant spatial transmission channel of COVID-19 in a system of economically interconnected regions. Our estimation results also provide evidence for the triggering role of local hot spots in disease transmission and point to the effectiveness of containment measures in mitigating the spread of the virus across German regions through reduced job commuting and other forms of mobility.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10109-021-00349-3.</p>","PeriodicalId":47245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geographical Systems","volume":"24 1","pages":"5-31"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8141278/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Geographical Systems","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-021-00349-3","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2021/5/23 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This work is concerned with the spatiotemporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Germany. Our goal is twofold: first, we propose a novel spatial econometric model of the epidemic spread across NUTS-3 regions to identify the role played by commuting-to-work patterns for spatial disease transmission. Second, we explore if the imposed containment (lockdown) measures during the first pandemic wave in spring 2020 have affected the strength of this transmission channel. Our results from a spatial panel error correction model indicate that, without containment measures in place, commuting-to-work patterns were the first factor to significantly determine the spatial dynamics of daily COVID-19 cases in Germany. This indicates that job commuting, particularly during the initial phase of a pandemic wave, should be regarded and accordingly monitored as a relevant spatial transmission channel of COVID-19 in a system of economically interconnected regions. Our estimation results also provide evidence for the triggering role of local hot spots in disease transmission and point to the effectiveness of containment measures in mitigating the spread of the virus across German regions through reduced job commuting and other forms of mobility.
Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10109-021-00349-3.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Geographical Systems (JGS) is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed academic journal that aims to encourage and promote high-quality scholarship on new theoretical or empirical results, models and methods in the social sciences. It solicits original papers with a spatial dimension that can be of interest to social scientists. Coverage includes regional science, economic geography, spatial economics, regional and urban economics, GIScience and GeoComputation, big data and machine learning. Spatial analysis, spatial econometrics and statistics are strongly represented.
One of the distinctive features of the journal is its concern for the interface between modeling, statistical techniques and spatial issues in a wide spectrum of related fields. An important goal of the journal is to encourage a spatial perspective in the social sciences that emphasizes geographical space as a relevant dimension to our understanding of socio-economic phenomena.
Contributions should be of high-quality, be technically well-crafted, make a substantial contribution to the subject and contain a spatial dimension. The journal also aims to publish, review and survey articles that make recent theoretical and methodological developments more readily accessible to the audience of the journal.
All papers of this journal have undergone rigorous double-blind peer-review, based on initial editor screening and with at least two peer reviewers.
Officially cited as J Geogr Syst
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