A general model for Covid-19 epidemic kinetics: application to italian and german data.

Abstract

In this paper we report the description, implementation and application of a kinetic model designed for describing the Covid-19 epidemic spread in Italy and Germany in the period between February and June 2020 coinciding with the beginning of the statistical regime of the epidemic spread and the application of restrictive government measures aimed at its containment. The model, which makes use of a limited number of parameters, in spite of its simplicity is able of capturing the essential physical features of the epidemic spread highlighting the essential role of the restrictive measures and in particular the timeliness of their application for the containment of the most dramatic consequences. This work also confirms how the epidemic spread, if considered during its statistical-regime evolution, can be properly described - and hence probably better understood - using languages and methodologies typically adopted for chemical processes, such as the Mass Action Law and Chemical Kinetics.