Random Forest-Based Prediction of Outcome and Mortality in Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury Undergoing Primary Decompressive Craniectomy.

Abstract

Background: Various prognostic models are used to predict mortality and functional outcome in patients after traumatic brain injury with a trend to incorporate machine learning protocols. None of these models is focused exactly on the subgroup of patients indicated for decompressive craniectomy. Evidence regarding efficiency of this surgery is still incomplete, especially in patients undergoing primary decompressive craniectomy with evacuation of traumatic mass lesions.

Methods: In a prospective study with a 6-month follow-up period, we assessed postoperative outcome and mortality of 40 patients who underwent primary decompressive craniectomy for traumatic brain injuries during 2018-2019. The results were analyzed in relation to a wide spectrum of preoperatively available demographic, clinical, radiographic, and laboratory data. Random forest algorithms were trained for prediction of both mortality and unfavorable outcome, with their accuracy quantified by area under the receiver operating curves (AUCs) for out-of-bag samples.

Results: At the end of the follow-up period, we observed mortality of 57.5%. Favorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale [GOS] score 4-5) was achieved by 30% of our patients. Random forest-based prediction models constructed for 6-month mortality and outcome reached a moderate predictive ability, with AUC = 0.811 and AUC = 0.873, respectively. Random forest models trained on handpicked variables showed slightly decreased AUC = 0.787 for 6-month mortality and AUC = 0.846 for 6-month outcome and increased out-of-bag error rates.

Conclusions: Random forest algorithms show promising results in prediction of postoperative outcome and mortality in patients undergoing primary decompressive craniectomy. The best performance was achieved by Classification Random forest for 6-month outcome.