An epidemic model integrating direct and fomite transmission as well as household structure applied to COVID-19.

Abstract

This paper stresses its base contribution on a new SIR-type model including direct and fomite transmission as well as the effect of distinct household structures. The model derivation is modulated by several mechanistic processes inherent from typical airborne diseases. The notion of minimum contact radius is included in the direct transmission, facilitating the arguments on physical distancing. As fomite transmission heavily relates to former-trace of sneezes, the vector field of the system naturally contains an integral kernel with time delay indicating the contribution of undetected and non-quarantined asymptomatic cases in accumulating the historical contamination of surfaces. We then increase the complexity by including the different transmission routines within and between households. For airborne diseases, within-household interactions play a significant role in the propagation of the disease rendering countrywide effect. Two steps were taken to include the effect of household structure. The first step subdivides the entire compartments (susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, symptomatic, recovered, death) into the household level and different infection rates for the direct transmission within and between households were distinguished. Under predefined conditions and assumptions, the governing system on household level can be raised to the community level. The second step then raises the governing system to the country level, where the final state variables estimate the total individuals from all compartments in the country. Two key attributes related to the household structure (number of local households and number of household members) effectively classify countries to be of low or high risk in terms of effective disease propagation. The basic reproductive number is calculated and its biological meaning is invoked properly. The numerical methods for solving the DIDE-system and the parameter estimation problem were mentioned. Our optimal model solutions are in quite good agreement with datasets of COVID-19 active cases and related deaths from Germany and Sri Lanka in early infection, allowing us to hypothesize several unobservable situations in the two countries. Focusing on extending minimum contact radius and reducing the intensity of individual activities, we were able to synthesize the key parameters telling what to practice.