Economic and Distributional Impact of COVID-19: Evidence from Macro-Micro Modelling of the South African Economy.

IF 0.9 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Epub Date: 2020-11-26 DOI:10.1111/saje.12275

Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu, Martin Henseler, Ramos Mabugu, Hélène Maisonnave

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引用次数: 30

Abstract

A computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model is applied to assess the potential short-term effects on the South African economy of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. With a particular focus on distributional outcomes, two simulations are run, a mild and a severe scenario. The findings show significant evidence of decline in economic growth and employment, with the decline harsher for the severe scenario. The microeconomic results show that the pandemic moves the income distribution curve such that more households fall under the poverty line while at the same time, inequality declines. The latter result is driven by the disproportionate decline in incomes of richer households while the poorest of the poor are cushioned by government social grants that are kept intact during the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic is still unfolding and its economic modelling as well as the data used to operationalise the model will need to be updated and improved upon as more information about the disease and the economy becomes available.

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2019冠状病毒病的经济和分配影响:来自南非经济宏观微观模型的证据。

应用与微观模拟模型相关联的可计算一般均衡模型来评估持续的COVID-19大流行对南非经济的潜在短期影响。特别关注分配结果，运行了两个模拟，一个温和的和一个严重的场景。调查结果显示，经济增长和就业出现明显下滑，在严重情景下下滑幅度更大。微观经济结果表明，大流行使收入分配曲线移动，使更多家庭落在贫困线以下，同时不平等程度下降。造成后一种结果的原因是，较富裕家庭的收入不成比例地下降，而穷人中最贫穷的人得到政府社会补助金的缓冲，这些补助金在大流行期间保持不变。COVID-19大流行仍在展开，随着有关该疾病和经济的信息越来越多，需要更新和改进其经济模型以及用于实施模型的数据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The South African Journal of Economics (SAJE) has a long and distinguished history, ranking amongst the oldest generalist journals in economics. In terms of editorial focus, the journal remains a generalist journal covering all fields in economics, but with a particular focus on developmental and African contexts. Toward this end, the editorial policy of the SAJE emphasizes scholarly work on developing countries, with African and Southern African development challenges receiving particular attention. While the SAJE remains a generalist journal, it encourages empirical work on developing and African economies. Importantly the focus is on both theoretical developments and methodological innovations that reflect developing country and African contexts and the policy challenges they pose. The objective of the journal is to be the premier vehicle for the publication of the most innovative work on development country and particularly African economic problems. It aims to be the target journal of choice not only for scholars located in Southern Africa, but of any scholar interested in the analysis of development challenges and their African applications. Clear theoretical foundations to work published should be a hallmark of the journal, and innovation in both theory and empirics appropriate to developing country and the African contexts are encouraged. In terms of submissions, the journal invites submissions primarily of original research articles, as well as survey articles and book reviews relevant to its context. In the case of both survey articles and book reviews, authors should note that a key minimum requirement is a critical reflection on the broader context of the existing literature.