Stochastic mathematical model for the spread and control of Corona virus.

Abstract

This work is devoted to a stochastic model on the spread and control of corona virus (COVID-19), in which the total population of a corona infected area is divided into susceptible, infected, and recovered classes. In reality, the number of individuals who get disease, the number of deaths due to corona virus, and the number of recovered are stochastic, because nobody can tell the exact value of these numbers in the future. The models containing these terms must be stochastic. Such numbers are estimated and counted by a random process called a Poisson process (or birth process). We construct an SIR-type model in which the above numbers are stochastic and counted by a Poisson process. To understand the spread and control of corona virus in a better way, we first study the stability of the corresponding deterministic model, investigate the unique nonnegative strong solution and an inequality managing of which leads to control of the virus. After this, we pass to the stochastic model and show the existence of a unique strong solution. Next, we use the supermartingale approach to investigate a bound managing of which also leads to decrease of the number of infected individuals. Finally, we use the data of the COVOD-19 in USA to calculate the intensity of Poisson processes and verify our results.