COVID-19 lockdown and fatal motor vehicle collisions due to speed-related traffic violations in Japan: a time-series study.

IF 2

Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention Pub Date : 2021-02-01 Epub Date: 2020-10-16 DOI:10.1136/injuryprev-2020-043947

Haruhiko Inada, Lamisa Ashraf, Sachalee Campbell

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引用次数: 55

Abstract

Between March and May 2020, Japan experienced a lockdown due to the COVID-19 crisis. Empty roads possibly triggered speed-related traffic violations that caused fatal motor vehicle collisions (MVCs). Using police data on the monthly number of fatal MVCs between January 2010 and February 2020 in which motor vehicle drivers were at fault, we forecasted the numbers of fatal MVCs due to the speed-related violations during the lockdown and compared these with those observed. We also compared the observed to forecasted using the ratio of the number of speed-related fatal MVCs to that of non-speed related fatal MVCs. The observed numbers of speed-related fatal MVCs were within the 95% CIs of the forecasted numbers. The observed ratio was higher than the forecasted ratio in April (p=0.016). In the second month of the lockdown, drivers were more likely to commit speed-related violations that caused fatal MVCs than before the lockdown.

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日本因超速相关交通违规导致的COVID-19封锁和致命机动车辆碰撞:一项时间序列研究

2020年3月至5月期间，日本因新冠肺炎危机而经历了封锁。空旷的道路可能引发与速度相关的交通违规行为，导致致命的机动车辆碰撞(MVCs)。利用警方2010年1月至2020年2月期间因机动车驾驶员过错导致的每月致命车祸数量的数据，我们预测了封锁期间因与速度相关的违规行为导致的致命车祸数量，并将这些数据与观察到的数据进行了比较。我们还使用与速度相关的致命mvc数量与非速度相关的致命mvc数量的比率来比较观察到的和预测的。观察到的与速度相关的致命mvc数在预测数的95% ci范围内。4月份的观察比率高于预测比率(p=0.016)。在封锁的第二个月，与封锁前相比，司机更有可能犯下与速度相关的违规行为，导致致命的车祸。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention

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