Predictive Extrinsic Factors in Multiple Victim Shootings.

Abstract

Although researchers have found support for a relationship between temperature and violence and evidence of temporal patterns in violent crime, research on homicide shows less consistent results and no research on mass murder has been conducted. We address this by examining predictive factors in multi-victim shootings (those with four or more victims, including injured), a more general crime category than mass murder, but one with likely similar predictive factors. We used data from the Gun Violence Archive to understand the relationship between multi-victim shootings and temperature as well as other extrinsic factors. To avoid the confound between season and temperature, we employed temperature anomaly (the difference between actual and expected temperature) as a predictor of daily shooting rate. Using a generalized linear model for the daily count of multi-victim shootings in the U.S., we found that these events are significantly more frequent on weekends, some major holidays, hotter seasons, and when the temperature is higher than usual. Like other crimes, rates of multi-victim shooting vary systematically.