Second Order Segmented Polynomials for Syphilis and Gonorrhea Prevalence and Incidence Trends Estimation: Application to Spectrum's Guinea-Bissau and South Africa Data.

IF 1.2 4区数学 Q4 MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY

International Journal of Biostatistics Pub Date : 2019-06-08 DOI:10.1515/ijb-2017-0073

Severin Guy Mahiane, Carel Pretorius, Eline Korenromp

引用次数: 2

Abstract

This paper presents two approaches to smoothing time trends in prevalence and estimating the underlying incidence of remissible infections. In the first approach, we use second order segmented polynomials to smooth a curve in a bounded domain. In the second, incidence is modeled instead and the prevalence is reconstructed using the recovery rate which is assumed to be known. In both approaches, the number of knots and their positions are estimated, resulting in non-linear regressions. Akaike Information Criterion is used for model selection. The method is illustrated with Syphilis and Gonorrhea prevalence smoothing and incidence trend estimation in Guinea-Bissau and South Africa, respectively.

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梅毒和淋病流行和发病率趋势估计的二阶分段多项式:在Spectrum的几内亚比绍和南非数据中的应用。

本文提出了两种方法来平滑流行的时间趋势和估计可忽略感染的潜在发生率。在第一种方法中，我们使用二阶分段多项式在有界区域内平滑曲线。在第二种方法中，发病率被建模，患病率被假设为已知的恢复率重建。在这两种方法中，结点的数量和它们的位置都是估计的，导致非线性回归。模型选择采用赤池信息准则。该方法分别以几内亚比绍和南非的梅毒和淋病流行平滑和发病率趋势估计为例。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Biostatistics MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY-STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

8.30%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Biostatistics (IJB) seeks to publish new biostatistical models and methods, new statistical theory, as well as original applications of statistical methods, for important practical problems arising from the biological, medical, public health, and agricultural sciences with an emphasis on semiparametric methods. Given many alternatives to publish exist within biostatistics, IJB offers a place to publish for research in biostatistics focusing on modern methods, often based on machine-learning and other data-adaptive methodologies, as well as providing a unique reading experience that compels the author to be explicit about the statistical inference problem addressed by the paper. IJB is intended that the journal cover the entire range of biostatistics, from theoretical advances to relevant and sensible translations of a practical problem into a statistical framework. Electronic publication also allows for data and software code to be appended, and opens the door for reproducible research allowing readers to easily replicate analyses described in a paper. Both original research and review articles will be warmly received, as will articles applying sound statistical methods to practical problems.