Order preservation of expected information content using Unscented Transform approximation of multivariate prior distributions in HIV 2-LTR experiment design.

Abstract

Numerical computation of the expected information content of a prospective experimental design is computationally expensive, requiring calculating the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the posterior distribution from the prior for simulated data from a large sample of points from the prior distribution. In this work, we investigate whether the Unscented Transform (UT) of the prior distribution can provide an adequate estimate of the expected information content in the context of experiment design for a previously validated HIV-1 2-LTR model. Three different schedules with evenly distributed time points have been used to generate the experimental data along with the incorporation of qPCR noise for the study. The UT shows promise in estimating information content by preserving the optimal ordering of 2-LTR sample collection schedules, when compared to completely stochastic sampling from the underlying multivariate distributions.