Tropical cyclones in a year of rising global temperatures and a strengthening El Niño.

Abstract

The year 2015 is notable for the coincidence of several strong climate indicators that having bearing on the occurrence and intensity of tropical cyclones worldwide. This year, 2015, is clearly on track to become the warmest on record in terms of global temperatures. During the latter half of 2015, a very strong El Niño has formed and is predicted to build impressively, perhaps rivaling the memorable El Niño of 1997/1998. Warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, coupled with a strengthening El Niño, have supported the proliferation of Western North Pacific basin typhoons and Eastern/Central North Pacific Hurricanes. Most notable among these, Hurricane Patricia formed on October 20, 2015 and experienced extremely rapid intensification to become the strongest hurricane in the history of the Western Hemisphere and then weakened just as abruptly before dissipating on October 24, 2015. Rather than an aberration, these climate patterns of 2015 represent an ongoing trend with implications for the disaster health of coastal populations worldwide.