Failure to Replicate: Sound the Alarm.

John P A Ioannidis
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Abstract

Science has always relied on reproducibility to build confidence in experimental results. Now, the most comprehensive investigation ever done about the rate and predictors of reproducibility in social and cognitive sciences has found that regardless of the analytic method or criteria used, fewer than half of the original findings were successfully replicated. While a failure to reproduce does not necessarily mean the original report was incorrect, the results suggest that more rigorous methods are long overdue.

复制失败:发出告警。
科学总是依靠可重复性来建立对实验结果的信心。现在,对社会科学和认知科学中可重复性的比率和预测因素所做的最全面的调查发现,无论使用何种分析方法或标准,只有不到一半的原始发现被成功复制。虽然未能复制并不一定意味着原始报告是错误的,但结果表明,更严格的方法早就应该出现了。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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