[Linkage analysis of serial sex crimes].

Q4 Psychology

Shinrigaku Kenkyu Pub Date : 2015-08-01 DOI:10.4992/jjpsy.86.13086

Kaeko Yokota, Kazumi Watanabe, Taeko Wachi, Yusuke Otsuka, Hiroki Kuraishi, Goro Fujita

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

The purpose of this study was twofold: first, to create an index for a behavioral linkage analysis of serial sex crimes, and second, to construct a predictive model for the analysis. Data on 720 sex crimes (rape, indecent assault) committed by 360 offenders arrested between 1993 and 2005 throughout Japan were collected. The following seven behaviors were examined during a series of analyses aimed at illustrating the effectiveness of crime linkage in serial sex crimes: victim age group, area type, publicness of offense site, weapon, time, contact method, and day of the week. The results indicated that six of the seven behaviors (excluding "day of the week") significantly distinguished between linked and unlinked crime pairs. Under a logistic regression of these six variables, which were dichotomously coded in terms of the concordance or discordance between each pair of incidents, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.85 (95% CI = 0.82-0.87), indicating a high level of discriminative accuracy in identifying disparate sex crimes committed by the same person.

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【连环性犯罪关联分析】。

本研究的目的有两方面:一是为连环性犯罪行为关联分析建立一个指标，二是为分析构建一个预测模型。该研究收集了1993年至2005年间全日本被逮捕的360名罪犯所犯的720起性犯罪(强奸、猥亵)的数据。在一系列旨在说明连环性犯罪中犯罪联系有效性的分析中，以下七种行为被检查:受害者年龄组、区域类型、犯罪地点的公开性、武器、时间、联系方式和一周中的哪一天。结果表明，七种行为中的六种(不包括“一周中的一天”)在关联犯罪和非关联犯罪对之间有显著区别。对这6个变量进行逻辑回归，根据每对事件之间的一致性或不一致性进行二分类编码，受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积为0.85 (95% CI = 0.82-0.87)，表明识别同一个人犯下的不同性犯罪具有较高的判别准确性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Shinrigaku Kenkyu Psychology-Psychology (all)

CiteScore

0.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量