{"title":"A phenomenological model for COVID-19 data taking into account neighboring-provinces effect and random noise.","authors":"Julia Calatayud, Marc Jornet, Jorge Mateu","doi":"10.1111/stan.12278","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We model the incidence of the COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the epidemic in Castilla-Leon (Spain). Within-province dynamics may be governed by a generalized logistic map, but this lacks of spatial structure. To couple the provinces, we relate the daily new infections through a density-independent parameter that entails positive spatial correlation. Pointwise values of the input parameters are fitted by an optimization procedure. To accommodate the significant variability in the daily data, with abruptly increasing and decreasing magnitudes, a random noise is incorporated into the model, whose parameters are calibrated by maximum likelihood estimation. The calculated paths of the stochastic response and the probabilistic regions are in good agreement with the data.</p>","PeriodicalId":51178,"journal":{"name":"Statistica Neerlandica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9538456/pdf/STAN-9999-0.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Statistica Neerlandica","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/stan.12278","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We model the incidence of the COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the epidemic in Castilla-Leon (Spain). Within-province dynamics may be governed by a generalized logistic map, but this lacks of spatial structure. To couple the provinces, we relate the daily new infections through a density-independent parameter that entails positive spatial correlation. Pointwise values of the input parameters are fitted by an optimization procedure. To accommodate the significant variability in the daily data, with abruptly increasing and decreasing magnitudes, a random noise is incorporated into the model, whose parameters are calibrated by maximum likelihood estimation. The calculated paths of the stochastic response and the probabilistic regions are in good agreement with the data.
期刊介绍：
Statistica Neerlandica has been the journal of the Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research since 1946. It covers all areas of statistics, from theoretical to applied, with a special emphasis on mathematical statistics, statistics for the behavioural sciences and biostatistics. This wide scope is reflected by the expertise of the journal’s editors representing these areas. The diverse editorial board is committed to a fast and fair reviewing process, and will judge submissions on quality, correctness, relevance and originality. Statistica Neerlandica encourages transparency and reproducibility, and offers online resources to make data, code, simulation results and other additional materials publicly available.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
