Distribution modelling of Aedes aegypti in three dengue-endemic areas in Sumatera, Indonesia.

Abstract

Ae. aegypti is a dengue virus vector and a public health threat in Indonesia. Furthermore, the Dengue Haemoragic Fever (DHF) has spread to all cities in the country, including Bandar Lampung. A species distribution model, Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), was used to predict the geographic distribution of this vector in three dengue-endemic areas, namely Sukarame, Kemiling, and Tanjung Seneng. Previously, surveillance was conducted to determine the presence of Ae. aegypti. Therefore, this study suggested that environmental variables such as rainfall, temperature, land cover, and population density have influenced the widespread of Ae. aegypti and facilitate its proliferation in the study areas. The influence of the environmental variables was analyzed using a response curve. The model performance was measured by percent contribution, the importance of permutations, and the jackknife test. This study's evaluation indicates that the certainty models for the presence of Ae. aegypti in Sukarame, Kemiling, and Tanjung Seneng were developed extremely well, with respective values of 0.989, 0.993, and 0.969. The results showed that Ae. aegypti is widespread in the three endemic areas. The high population density and land conversion into settlements are influential environmental variables essential in determining the distribution of the vector in three areas of Bandar Lampung. Climatic factors such as rainfall and temperature are supporting aspects in maintaining the habitat of Ae. aegypti in the area. Mapping areas at risk of this dengue vector can aid in planning disease management strategies and identifying priority locations for entomological surveys to control epidemics.