Blowing in the wind? Testing the effect of weather on the spatial distribution of crime using Generalized Additive Models.

IF 3.1 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Crime Science Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-10-01 DOI:10.1186/s40163-022-00171-2

Rannveig Hart, Willy Pedersen, Torbjørn Skardhamar

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Oslo, the capital of Norway, is situated in a North European cool climate zone. We investigate the effect of weather on the overall level of crime in the city, as well as the impact of different aspects of weather (temperature, wind speed, precipitation) on the spatial distribution of crime, net of both total level of crime, time of day and seasonality. Geocoded locations of criminal offences were combined with data on temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) allowed us to map level of and the spatial distribution of crime, and how it was impacted by weather, in a more robust manner than in previous studies. There was slightly more crime in pleasurable weather (i.e. low precipitation and wind speed and high temperatures). However, neither temperature, precipitation nor wind speed impacted the spatial distribution of crime in the city.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-022-00171-2.

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在风中飘荡?用广义加性模型检验天气对犯罪空间分布的影响。

挪威首都奥斯陆位于北欧凉爽气候区。我们研究了天气对城市整体犯罪水平的影响，以及天气不同方面(温度、风速、降水)对犯罪空间分布的影响，包括总犯罪水平、时间和季节性。犯罪地点的地理编码与温度、风速和降水数据相结合。广义加性模型(GAMs)使我们能够以比以前的研究更可靠的方式绘制出犯罪的水平和空间分布，以及它是如何受天气影响的。在宜人的天气(即低降水、风速和高温)，犯罪率略高。气温、降水和风速对城市犯罪的空间分布没有影响。补充资料:在线版本包含补充资料，网址为10.1186/s40163-022-00171-2。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Crime Science Social Sciences-Cultural Studies

CiteScore

11.90

自引率

8.20%

发文量

审稿时长

13 weeks

期刊介绍： Crime Science is an international, interdisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal with an applied focus. The journal''s main focus is on research articles and systematic reviews that reflect the growing cooperation among a variety of fields, including environmental criminology, economics, engineering, geography, public health, psychology, statistics and urban planning, on improving the detection, prevention and understanding of crime and disorder. Crime Science will publish theoretical articles that are relevant to the field, for example, approaches that integrate theories from different disciplines. The goal of the journal is to broaden the scientific base for the understanding, analysis and control of crime and disorder. It is aimed at researchers, practitioners and policy-makers with an interest in crime reduction. It will also publish short contributions on timely topics including crime patterns, technological advances for detection and prevention, and analytical techniques, and on the crime reduction applications of research from a wide range of fields. Crime Science publishes research articles, systematic reviews, short contributions and theoretical articles. While Crime Science uses the APA reference style, the journal welcomes submissions using alternative reference styles on a case-by-case basis.