A Bioinformatics Tool for Predicting Future COVID-19 Waves Based on a Retrospective Analysis of the Second Wave in India: Model Development Study.

JMIR bioinformatics and biotechnology Pub Date : 2022-09-22 eCollection Date: 2022-01-01 DOI:10.2196/36860

Ashutosh Kumar, Adil Asghar, Prakhar Dwivedi, Gopichand Kumar, Ravi K Narayan, Rakesh K Jha, Rakesh Parashar, Chetan Sahni, Sada N Pandey

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Abstract

Background: Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, health policymakers globally have been attempting to predict an impending wave of COVID-19. India experienced a devastating second wave of COVID-19 in the late first week of May 2021. We retrospectively analyzed the viral genomic sequences and epidemiological data reflecting the emergence and spread of the second wave of COVID-19 in India to construct a prediction model.

Objective: We aimed to develop a bioinformatics tool that can predict an impending COVID-19 wave.

Methods: We analyzed the time series distribution of genomic sequence data for SARS-CoV-2 and correlated it with epidemiological data for new cases and deaths for the corresponding period of the second wave. In addition, we analyzed the phylodynamics of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the Indian population during the study period.

Results: Our prediction analysis showed that the first signs of the arrival of the second wave could be seen by the end of January 2021, about 2 months before its peak in May 2021. By the end of March 2021, it was distinct. B.1.617 lineage variants powered the wave, most notably B.1.617.2 (Delta variant).

Conclusions: Based on the observations of this study, we propose that genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants, complemented with epidemiological data, can be a promising tool to predict impending COVID-19 waves.

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基于对印度第二波COVID-19疫情的回顾性分析，用于预测未来COVID-19疫情的生物信息学工具：模型开发研究。

背景：自 COVID-19 大流行开始以来，全球卫生决策者一直试图预测即将到来的 COVID-19 浪潮。2021 年 5 月下旬的第一周，印度经历了 COVID-19 的第二波毁灭性疫情。我们回顾性地分析了反映印度第二波 COVID-19 出现和传播的病毒基因组序列和流行病学数据，以构建一个预测模型：我们旨在开发一种生物信息学工具，用于预测即将出现的 COVID-19 病毒潮：我们分析了 SARS-CoV-2 基因组序列数据的时间序列分布，并将其与第二波相应时期的新发病例和死亡病例的流行病学数据进行了关联。此外，我们还分析了研究期间印度人群中流行的 SARS-CoV-2 变种的系统动力学：我们的预测分析表明，2021 年 1 月底，即 2021 年 5 月达到高峰前约 2 个月，可以看到第二波疫情来临的最初迹象。到 2021 年 3 月底，第二波已非常明显。B.1.617系变体为这一浪潮提供了动力，其中最显著的是B.1.617.2（Delta变体）：根据本研究的观察结果，我们建议对 SARS-CoV-2 变异株进行基因组监测，并辅以流行病学数据，这将是预测即将到来的 COVID-19 病毒潮的有效工具。

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来源期刊

JMIR bioinformatics and biotechnology

CiteScore

2.90

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0.00%

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