Pilgrims and MERS-CoV: what's the risk?

IF 3.6 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Emerging Themes in Epidemiology Pub Date : 2015-02-18 eCollection Date: 2015-01-01 DOI:10.1186/s12982-015-0025-8

Tarek Soliman, Alex R Cook, Richard J Coker

引用次数: 24

Abstract

The risk of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus spreading globally is worrying, given the annual mass gathering of the Hajj and the year-long influx of pilgrims undertaking the Umrah. Based on the incidence in Saudi Arabia since June 2012, the most likely scenario given recent pilgrim numbers is estimated to be one case per Hajj, and three Umrah pilgrims per year, but which could plausibly reach seven and ten pilgrims respectively. In addition to the 2015 Hajj, national surveillance systems should be on the alert for the low but long-lasting risk of infected pilgrims returning from the Umrah throughout the year.

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朝圣者和中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒:有什么风险?

鉴于一年一度的大规模朝觐和为期一年的朝圣潮，中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒在全球蔓延的风险令人担忧。根据沙特阿拉伯自2012年6月以来的发病率，考虑到最近的朝觐者人数，最可能的情况估计是每年每个朝觐有一例，每年朝觐有三例，但可能分别达到7例和10例。除了2015年的朝觐外，国家监测系统还应对全年从朝觐返回的受感染朝圣者的低但长期风险保持警惕。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Emerging Themes in Epidemiology Medicine-Epidemiology

CiteScore

4.40

自引率

4.30%

发文量

审稿时长

28 weeks

期刊介绍： Emerging Themes in Epidemiology is an open access, peer-reviewed, online journal that aims to promote debate and discussion on practical and theoretical aspects of epidemiology. Combining statistical approaches with an understanding of the biology of disease, epidemiologists seek to elucidate the social, environmental and host factors related to adverse health outcomes. Although research findings from epidemiologic studies abound in traditional public health journals, little publication space is devoted to discussion of the practical and theoretical concepts that underpin them. Because of its immediate impact on public health, an openly accessible forum is needed in the field of epidemiology to foster such discussion.